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Inflation Risk Premia, Yield Volatility and Macro Factors

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Berardi

    (Ca Foscari University of Venice)

  • Alberto Plazzi

    (University of Lugano and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

We incorporate a latent stochastic volatility factor and macroeconomic expectations in an affine model for the term structure of nominal and real rates. We estimate the model over 1999-2016 on U.S. data for nominal and TIPS yields, the realized and implied volatility of T-bonds and survey forecasts of GDP growth and inflation. We find relatively stable inflation risk premia averaging at 40bps at the long-end, and which are strongly related to the volatility factor and conditional mean of output growth. We also document real risk premia that turn negative in the post-crisis period, and a non-negligible variance risk premium.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Berardi & Alberto Plazzi, 2018. "Inflation Risk Premia, Yield Volatility and Macro Factors," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 18-13, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Mar 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1813
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    Cited by:

    1. Casiraghi, Marco & Miccoli, Marcello, 2019. "Inflation risk premia and risk-adjusted expectations of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 36-39.
    2. Curatola, Giuliano, 2022. "Price impact, strategic interaction and portfolio choice," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    3. Kim, Young Min & Kang, Kyu Ho & Ka, Kook, 2020. "Do bond markets find inflation targets credible? Evidence from five inflation-targeting countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 66-84.
    4. Berardi, Andrea & Plazzi, Alberto, 2022. "Dissecting the yield curve: The international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Lee, Seojin & Kim, Young Min, 2019. "Inflation expectation, monetary policy credibility, and exchange rates," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    6. Perico Ortiz, Daniel, 2023. "Inflation news coverage, expectations and risk premium," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    7. Boeckx, Jef & Iania, Leonardo & Wauters, Joris, 2023. "Macroeconomic drivers of Inflation Expectations and Inflation Risk Premia," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2023003, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    8. Argyropoulos, Efthymios & Tzavalis, Elias, 2021. "The influence of real interest rates and risk premium effects on the ability of the nominal term structure to forecast inflation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 785-796.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term Structure; Inflation Risk Premia; TIPS; Yield Volatility; Macro Factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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