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Asymmetric Beta Comovement and Systematic Downside Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Eric JONDEAU

    (University of Lausanne and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Qunzi ZHANG

    (Shandong University)

Abstract

In this paper, we document evidence that downside betas tend to comove more than upside betas during a financial crisis, but upside betas tend to comove more than the downside betas during financial booms. We find that the asymmetry between Downside-Beta Comovement and Upside-Beta Comovement is the main driving force for market level skewness. An indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR) is defined to characterize this asymmetry in the comovement of betas. This indicator negatively predicts future market returns. The SDR effectively forecasts future monthly stock market movements with an out-of-sample R-square above 2.27% relative to a strategy based on historical mean. An investor who timed the market using SDR would have obtained a Sharpe ratio gain of 0.206.

Suggested Citation

  • Eric JONDEAU & Qunzi ZHANG, 2014. "Asymmetric Beta Comovement and Systematic Downside Risk," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 14-59, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1459
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    File URL: http://ssrn.com/abstract=2511327
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    Cited by:

    1. Shen, Yiwen & Shi, Meiqi, 2024. "Intraday variation in cross-sectional stock comovement and impact of index-based strategies," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Systematic Risk; Skewness; Predictability; Trading Strategies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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