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Are Ratings the Worst Form of Credit Assessment Apart from All the Others?

Author

Listed:
  • Andreas Bloechlinger

    (Zurich Cantonal Bank)

  • Markus Leippold

    (University of Zurich, Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, and Swiss Finance Institute)

Abstract

We present a prediction model to forecast corporate defaults. In a theoretical model, under incomplete information in a market with publicly traded equity, we show that our approach must outperform ratings, Altman’s Z-score, and Merton’s distance to default. We reconcile the statistical and structural approaches under a common framework, i.e., our approach nests Altman’s and Merton’s approaches as special cases. Empirically, we cannot reject the superiority of our approach.Furthermore, the numbers of observed defaults align well with the estimated probabilities. Finally, with rank transforms, we obtain cycle-adjusted forecasts that still outperform ratings.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Bloechlinger & Markus Leippold, 2012. "Are Ratings the Worst Form of Credit Assessment Apart from All the Others?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 12-09, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1209
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Harald Hau & Sam Langfield & David Marques-Ibanez, 2013. "Bank ratings: what determines their quality? [Bank risk during the financial crisis: do business models matter?]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(74), pages 289-333.
    2. Grothe, Magdalena, 2013. "Market pricing of credit rating signals," Working Paper Series 1623, European Central Bank.
    3. Giovanni Ferri & Panu Kalmi & Eeva Kerola, 2014. "Organizational Structure and Exposure to Crisis among European Banks: Evidence from Rating Changes," Journal of Entrepreneurial and Organizational Diversity, European Research Institute on Cooperative and Social Enterprises, vol. 3(1), pages 35-55, June.
    4. Neuberg Richard & Hannah Lauren, 2017. "Loan pricing under estimation risk," Statistics & Risk Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 34(1-2), pages 69-87, June.
    5. Fiordelisi, Franco & Marqués-Ibañez, David, 2013. "Is bank default risk systematic?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2000-2010.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit rating agencies; distance to default; z-score; zeta-score; default prediction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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