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Distress Dependence and Financial Stability

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  • Miguel A. Segoviano
  • Charles Goodhart

Abstract

This paper defines a set of systemic financial stability indicators which measure distress dependence among the financial institutions in a system, thereby allowing to analyze stability from three complementary perspectives: common distress in the system, distress between specific banks, and cascade effects associated with a specific bank. Our approach defines the banking system as a portfolio of banks and infers the system’s multivariate density (BSMD) from which the proposed measures are estimated. The BSMD embeds the banks’ default inter-dependence structure that captures linear and non-linear distress dependencies among the banks in the system, and its changes at different times of the economic cycle. The BSMD is recovered using the CIMDO-approach, a new approach that, in the presence of restricted data, improves density specification without explicitly imposing parametric forms that, under restricted data sets, are difficult to model. Thus, the proposed measures can be constructed from a very limited set of publicly available data and can be provided for a wide range of both developing and developed countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel A. Segoviano & Charles Goodhart, 2010. "Distress Dependence and Financial Stability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 569, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:569
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_569.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles Goodhart & Boris Hofmann & Miguel Segoviano, 2004. "Bank Regulation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 20(4), pages 591-615, Winter.
    2. P. Hartmann & S. Straetmans & C. G. de Vries, 2004. "Asset Market Linkages in Crisis Periods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 313-326, February.
    3. Segoviano, Miguel A. & Lowe, Philip, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24948, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Charles Goodhart & Pojanart Sunirand & Dimitrios Tsomocos, 2006. "A model to analyse financial fragility," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 27(1), pages 107-142, January.
    5. Segoviano, Miguel A., 2006. "Conditional probability of default methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24512, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. De Vries, C.G., 2005. "The simple economics of bank fragility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 803-825, April.
    7. Diebold, Francis X & Gunther, Todd A & Tay, Anthony S, 1998. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to Financial Risk Management," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 863-883, November.
    8. Miguel Segoviano, 2006. "Consistent Information Multivariate Density Optimizing Methodology," FMG Discussion Papers dp557, Financial Markets Group.
    9. Philip Lowe, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," FMG Discussion Papers dp428, Financial Markets Group.
    10. Segoviano, Miguel A., 2006. "Consistent information multivariate density optimizing methodology," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24511, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Mr. C. A. E. Goodhart & Miguel A. Segoviano & Boris Hofmann, 2006. "Default, Credit Growth, and Asset Prices," IMF Working Papers 2006/223, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Francis X. Diebold & Jinyong Hahn & Anthony S. Tay, 1999. "Multivariate Density Forecast Evaluation And Calibration In Financial Risk Management: High-Frequency Returns On Foreign Exchange," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 661-673, November.
    13. Philip Lowe & Miguel Angel Segoviano, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle, and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    14. Miguel A. Segoviano, 2006. "Portfolio Credit Risk and Macroeconomic Shocks: Applications to Stress Testing Under Data-Restricted Environments," IMF Working Papers 2006/283, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Philip Lowe & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," BIS Working Papers 117, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael B. Devereux, 2011. "Fiscal Deficits, Debt, and Monetary Policy in a Liquidity Trap," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy under Financial Turbulence, edition 1, volume 16, chapter 10, pages 369-410, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Eric M. Leeper, 2009. "Anchors Away: How Fiscal Policy Can Undermine “Good” Monetary Policy," CAEPR Working Papers 2009-021, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    3. Mr. Dimitri G Demekas, 2015. "Designing Effective Macroprudential Stress Tests: Progress So Far and the Way Forward," IMF Working Papers 2015/146, International Monetary Fund.

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