IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/chb/bcchwp/489.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Multimodality Test and Mixture Distributions: An Application to the Central Bank Expectation Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Patricio Jaramillo
  • Juan Carlos Piantini

Abstract

This paper presents the Silverman multimodality test and mixture distributions methodology, applying both approaches to the Economic Expectations Survey of the Central Bank of Chile. The main results reflect the importance of permanently monitoring the implicit kernel distributions in each survey. Private analysts’ forecasts are found to have systematically been in line with the inflation targeting range, although during episodes where effective inflation fell outside the target range, the analysts encounter forecasting difficulties. Meanwhile, we observe the relevance of the Bank’s inflationary report for anchoring expectations, as the distributions become systematically more homogenous after publication.

Suggested Citation

  • Patricio Jaramillo & Juan Carlos Piantini, 2008. "Multimodality Test and Mixture Distributions: An Application to the Central Bank Expectation Survey," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 489, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:489
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_489.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2007. "Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting: An Introduction," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 1, pages 001-022, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Demertzis, Maria, 2004. "Central Bank independence: Low inflation at no cost? A numerical simulations exercise," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 661-677, December.
    3. Carlos Bowles & Roberta Friz & Veronique Genre & Geoff Kenny & Aidan Meyler & Tuomas Rautanen, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) – A review after eight years’ experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
    4. Fabián Gredig U. & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel D. & Rodrigo O. Valdés P., 2008. "The Monetary Policy Horizon in Chile and Other Inflation-Targeting Countries," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(1), pages 5-27, April.
    5. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    6. Lahiri, Kajal & Teigland, Christie & Zaporowski, Mark, 1988. "Interest Rates and the Subjective Probability Distribution of Inflation Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 233-248, May.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    8. Bergstrom, P., 1999. "Bootstrap Methods and Applications in Econometrics -a Brief Survey," Papers 1999:2, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
    9. Kenny, Geoff & Genre, Véronique & Bowles, Carlos & Friz, Roberta & Meyler, Aidan & Rautanen, Tuomas, 2007. "The ECB survey of professional forecasters (SPF) - A review after eight years' experience," Occasional Paper Series 59, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Man-Keung Tang & Mr. Xiangrong Yu, 2011. "Communication of Central Bank Thinking and Inflation Dynamics," IMF Working Papers 2011/209, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Carlos Garcia & Luis González & Alejandro Granda, 2010. "¿Cómo funcionan y se pueden enfrentar los shocks bursátiles en economías abiertas y emergentes?," ILADES-UAH Working Papers inv259, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business.
    3. Pablo Gonzalez & Mauricio Tejada, 2006. "No linealidades en la regla de política monetaria del Banco Central de Chile: una evidencia empírica," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 21(1), pages 81-115, July.
    4. Gary Koop & Luca Onorante, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECBs Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 1109, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    5. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Will Monetary Policy Become More of a Science?," NBER Working Papers 13566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Batini, Nicoletta & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 2009. "Estabilización óptima del tipo de cambio en una economía dolarizada con meta inflacionaria," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 16, pages 37-82.
    7. Koop, Gary & Onorante, Luca, 2011. "Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-19, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    8. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra, 2017. "Measuring uncertainty and assessing its predictive power in the euro area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 165-182, August.
    9. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.
    10. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2015. "New-Keynesian economics: An AS–AD view," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 503-524.
    11. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
    12. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "Animal Spirits and Monetary Policy," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 18, pages 473-520, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Alex Cukierman & Anton Muscatelli, 2001. "Do Central Banks have Precautionary Demands for Expansions and for Price Stability?," Working Papers 2002_4, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Mar 2002.
    14. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2002_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2002.
    15. Engelbert Stockhammer & Simon Sturn, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy on unemployment hysteresis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(21), pages 2743-2756, July.
    16. Jan Gottschalk & Ulrich Fritsche, 2005. "The New Keynesian Model and the Long-Run Vertical Phillips Curve: Does It Hold for Germany?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 521, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    17. Federico Di Pace & Matthias Hertweck, 2019. "Labor Market Frictions, Monetary Policy, and Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 274-304, April.
    18. Pelin Ilbas, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy rules for the Euro area in a DSGE framework," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces0613, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    19. Michael Woodford, 2007. "Interpreting Inflation Persistence: Comments on the Conference on “Quantitative Evidence on Price Determination”," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 203-210, February.
    20. Giuseppe Ferrero, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Transition to Rational Expectations," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 101, Econometric Society.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:489. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Alvaro Castillo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bccgvcl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.