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The Choice of Inflation Targeting

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  • Gustavo Leyva

Abstract

This paper assesses empirically the contribution of key macroeconomic and institutional variables in shaping the likelihood of choosing the Inflation Targeting (IT) regime in a sample that comprises countries working under such a regime and covers the period 1975-2005. I find inflation rate, financial development, GDP per capita and trade openness relevant for driving the choice of IT by estimating a discrete choice panel data model. Also, my results suggest that the initial conditions at the moment of IT adoption do matter because countries have different exposure to the likelihood of choosing IT as a result of their specific macroeconomic and institutional fundamentals and unobservable idiosyncratic factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustavo Leyva, 2008. "The Choice of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 475, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:475
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2004. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 365-416, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Nicoletta Batini & Douglas Laxton, 2007. "Under What Conditions Can Inflation Targeting Be Adopted? The Experience of Emerging Markets," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 12, pages 467-506, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    4. Laurence M. Ball & Niamh Sheridan, 2004. "Does Inflation Targeting Matter?," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 249-276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Arellano, Manuel & Honore, Bo, 2001. "Panel data models: some recent developments," Handbook of Econometrics, in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 53, pages 3229-3296, Elsevier.
    6. Marco Vega & Diego Winkelried, 2005. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Behavior: A Successful Story?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
    7. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Alejandro M. Werner, 2002. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico: Performance, Credibility, and the Exchange Rate," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 31-90, January.
    8. Mr. Mark Zelmer & Ms. Andrea Schaechter, 2000. "Adopting Inflation Targeting: Practical Issues for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Occasional Papers 2000/017, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Arellano, Manuel & Carrasco, Raquel, 2003. "Binary choice panel data models with predetermined variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 125-157, July.
    10. Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291.
    11. White, Halbert, 1982. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Misspecified Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 1-25, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zied SAYARI & Rima LAJNAF, 2017. "Inflation targeting and volatility: Panel evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 57-68, Spring.
    2. Ardakani Omid M. & Kishor N. Kundan, 2018. "Examining the success of the central banks in inflation targeting countries: the dynamics of the inflation gap and institutional characteristics," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Hanna Samaryna & Jakob de Haan, 2011. "Right on Target: Exploring the Determinants of Inflation Targeting Adoption," DNB Working Papers 321, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    4. Zied SAYARI & Rima LAJNAF, 2017. "Inflation targeting and volatility: Panel evidence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 57-68, Spring.
    5. Goran Petrevski, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," Papers 2305.17474, arXiv.org.
    6. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel., 2009. "Inflation Targeting Twenty Years on: Where, When, Why, With what Effects, What lies ahead?," Documentos de Trabajo 360, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    7. Fouda Owoundi, Jean-Pierre & Mbassi, Christophe Martial & Owoundi, Ferdinand, 2021. "Does inflation targeting weaken financial stability? Assessing the role of institutional quality," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 374-398.
    8. Valera, Harold Glenn A. & Holmes, Mark J. & Hassan, Gazi M., 2017. "How credible is inflation targeting in Asia? A quantile unit root perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 194-210.
    9. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Determinants of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271121, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    10. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2017. "Effect of credibility and exchange rate pass-through on inflation: An assessment for developing countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 196-244.
    11. de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira & de Guimarães e Souza, Gustavo José, 2012. "Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 178-191.
    12. Ardakani Omid M. & Kishor N. Kundan, 2018. "Examining the success of the central banks in inflation targeting countries: the dynamics of the inflation gap and institutional characteristics," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-19, February.
    13. Harold Glenn A. Valera & Mark J. Holmes & Gazi M. Hassan, 2018. "Is inflation targeting credible in Asia? A panel GARCH approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 523-546, March.
    14. Stojanovikj, Martin & Petrevski, Goran, 2019. "Adopting inflation targeting in emerging markets: exploring the factors behind the decision," MPRA Paper 115797, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jun 2020.
    15. Torrejón-Flores, Fernando & García-Solanes, José, 2012. "Inflation targeting works well in Latin America," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    16. Anna Samarina & Jakob De Haan, 2014. "Right On Target: Exploring The Factors Leading To Inflation Targeting Adoption," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 372-389, April.

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