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Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flows: The Role of Liquidity

Author

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  • Ilan Goldfajn
  • Rodrigo Valdés

Abstract

A model of external crises is developed focusing on the interaction between liquidity creation by financial intermediaries and foreign exchange collapses. The intermediaries' role of transforming maturities is shown to result in larger movements of capital and a higher probability of crises. This resembles the observed cycle in capital flows: large inflows, crises and abrupt outflows. The model highlights how adverse productivity and international interest rate shocks can be magnified by the behavior of individual foreign investors linked together through their deposits in the intermediaries. An eventual collapse of the exchange rate can link investors' behavior even further.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilan Goldfajn & Rodrigo Valdés, 1997. "Balance of Payments Crises and Capital Flows: The Role of Liquidity," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 11, Central Bank of Chile.
    • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:11
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    File URL: https://www.bcentral.cl/documents/33528/133326/DTBC_11.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Comment on "Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Liberalization, Overshooting, and Volatility"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Flows and the Emerging Economies: Theory, Evidence, and Controversies, pages 98-103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Garriga, Ana Carolina, 2011. "Regulatory Lags, Liberalization, and Vulnerability to Systemic Banking Crises," MPRA Paper 59154, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1997. "Borrowing Risk and the Tequila Effect," IMF Working Papers 1997/086, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Heun, Michael & Schlink, Torsten, 2004. "Early warning systems of financial crises: implementation of a currency crisis model for Uganda," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 59, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    5. Shankar, Rashmi, 2002. "Distinguishing between observationally equivalent theories of crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2926, The World Bank.
    6. Barry Eichengreen, 1998. "Exchange Rate Stability and Financial Stability," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 569-608, January.
    7. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Joshua Aizenman, 1998. "Contagion and Volatility with Imperfect Credit Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 207-235, June.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    9. Olli Castren & Tuomas Takalo, 2000. "Capital Market Development, Corporate Governance and the Credibility of Exchange Rate Pegs," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0515, Econometric Society.
    10. Michael P. Dooley & Inseok Shin, 1999. "Private inflows when crises are anticipated: a case study of Korea," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    11. Claudio Soto G. & Alberto Naudon D. & Eduardo López E. & Álvaro Aguirre R., 2004. "About International Reserve Adequacy: The Case of Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 7(3), pages 5-34, December.
    12. Pami Dua & Arunima Sinha, 2007. "East Asian Crisis and Currency Pressure: The Case of India," Working papers 158, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    13. Fofack, Hippolyte L., 2005. "Nonperforming loans in Sub-Saharan Africa : causal analysis and macroeconomic implications," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3769, The World Bank.
    14. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "Financial Liberalization and Policy Challenges," Research Department Publications 4102, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    15. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
    16. Kaminsky, Graciela L., 2006. "Currency crises: Are they all the same?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 503-527, April.
    17. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1999. "Private inflows when crises are anticipated: a case study of Korea - discussion," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    18. Álvaro A. Novo, 2003. "Contagious Currency Crisis: A Spatial Probit Approach," Working Papers w200305, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    19. Michael P. Dooley, 1997. "Apertura financiera y retos de políticas," Research Department Publications 4103, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    20. Alicia García Herrero & Pedro del Río, 2003. "Financial stability and the design of monetary policy," Working Papers 0315, Banco de España.
    21. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    22. Claudio Soto & Alberto Naudon & Eduardo López & Alvaro Aguirre, 2004. "Acerca del Nivel Adecuado de las Reservas Internacionales," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 267, Central Bank of Chile.
    23. Shankar, Rashmi, 2005. "Insurance and liquidity : panel evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3648, The World Bank.
    24. Janice Boucher Breuer, 2004. "An Exegesis on Currency and Banking Crises," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 293-320, July.

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