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Glimpsing the End of Economic History? Unconditional Convergence and the Missing Middle Income Trap - Working Paper 438

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  • Sutirtha Roy , Martin Kessler and Arvind Subramanian

Abstract

This paper suggests a reinterpretation of global growth—encompassing notions of unconditional convergence and the middle income trap—in the past 50 years through the lens of growth theory. We innovate by studying two modes of convergence: a classic “Solow” model where poorer countries catch up by growing faster on average; and a new “Wilde” model where catch-up growth is interpreted as growing faster than the frontier country, the United States. We apply these modes to both countries and people as units of analysis. We find that convergence has occurred faster and began earlier than widely believed.

Suggested Citation

  • Sutirtha Roy , Martin Kessler and Arvind Subramanian, 2016. "Glimpsing the End of Economic History? Unconditional Convergence and the Missing Middle Income Trap - Working Paper 438," Working Papers 438, Center for Global Development.
    • Handle: RePEc:cgd:wpaper:438
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anshuman Kamila & Meeta Keswani Mehra, 2021. "EXPLORING THE CONVERGENCE PUZZLE IN INDIA Combining neoclassical and endogenous models to understand growth experience of Indian states," IEG Working Papers 421, Institute of Economic Growth.
    2. Patel, Dev & Sandefur, Justin & Subramanian, Arvind, 2021. "The new era of unconditional convergence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2022. "In Defence of the Endogenous Growth Theory: "Conditional" and "Unconditional" Convergence in Two-Country AK Models," MPRA Paper 115092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Lekha Chakraborty & Pinaki Chakraborty, 2018. "Federalism, fiscal asymmetries and economic convergence: evidence from Indian States," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 83-113, April.
    5. Sulekha Hembram & Sushil Kr. Haldar, 2021. "Revisiting global income convergence: 1990-2018 A disaggregated analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 952-974.
    6. Michael Kremer & Jack Willis & Yang You, 2021. "Converging to Convergence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021, volume 36, pages 337-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ikhenaode, Bright Isaac & Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2022. "Migration, technology diffusion and convergence in a two-country AK Growth Model," MPRA Paper 115340, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Andersson, Martin & Palacio, Andrés & von Borries, Alvaro, 2022. "Why has economic shrinking receded in Latin America? A social capability approach," Lund Papers in Economic History 236, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    9. S. Mahendra Dev, 2024. "Regional Dimensions in India: Economic Growth, Inclusive and Sustainable Development," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 22(2), pages 245-296, June.
    10. Iikka Korhonen, 2019. "Differences in Transition Paths: Russia versus China," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(03), pages 17-21, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; convergence; middle income trap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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