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The Effects of Hosting the Olympic and Paralympic Games on COVID-19 in Tokyo: Ex-Ante Analyses

Author

Listed:
  • Asako Chiba

    (Tokyo Foundation for Policy)

  • Daisuke Fujii

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Yuta Maeda

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Masataka Mori

    (Middlebury College)

  • Kenichi Nagasawa

    (University of Warwick)

  • Taisuke Nakata

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Wataru Okamoto

    (University of Tokyo)

Abstract

We present a series of quantitative analyses conducted from mid-May of 2021 to mid-June of 2021 that examined the effects of hosting the Tokyo 2020 Olympic and Paralympic Games on the spread of COVID-19 in Tokyo. Our ex-ante quantitative analyses pointed out that (i) the direct effects on the spread of COVID-19 of welcoming Games-related foreign visitors to Japan or allowing spectators in competition venues would be either limited or manageable, but (ii) a festive mood generated by the Games could greatly contribute to the spread of COVID-19 if it led to a decline in people’s willingness to take preventive actions against infection. Ex-post, the key results of our ex-ante analyses are broadly in line with available circumstantial evidence as well as ex-post consensus by public-health experts on how the Games affected the spread of COVID-19 in Tokyo.

Suggested Citation

  • Asako Chiba & Daisuke Fujii & Yuta Maeda & Masataka Mori & Kenichi Nagasawa & Taisuke Nakata & Wataru Okamoto, 2022. "The Effects of Hosting the Olympic and Paralympic Games on COVID-19 in Tokyo: Ex-Ante Analyses," CARF F-Series CARF-F-539, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf539
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. INOUE Tomoo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2022. "Exploring the Dynamic Relationship between Mobility and the Spread of COVID-19, and the Role of Vaccines," Discussion papers 22011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
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