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On the effect of Bank of Japan's outright purchase on the JGB yield curve

Author

Listed:
  • Masafumi Nakano

    (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Akihiko Takahashi

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Soichiro Takahashi

    (Graduate School of Economics, University of Tokyo)

  • Takami Tokioka

    (GCI Asset Management)

Abstract

This paper examines an impact of Bank of Japan (BOJ)'s outright purchase on the JGB (Japanese government bond) yield curve. Particularly, we develop a simple state space model, which incorporates new factors regarding the BOJ's announcement for its outright purchase and the current market outstanding with standard level and spread factors. Based on the model with a filtering method, we also implement an empirical analysis with time series of the BOJ's announcement records during 2014/10/22-2017/8/3 in the quantitative-qualitative easing(QQE) period to estimate the sensitivities of interest rates against the changes in the market expectation for the net supply with each sector of JGB. We expect the current work provides a basis for considering quantitative effects on the term structure by BOJ's policy changes such as termination or significant reduction of the BOJ's outright purchase. For instance, our scenario analysis shows substantial increase in the 30 year yield with widening of 20-30 year spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi & Takami Tokioka, 2017. "On the effect of Bank of Japan's outright purchase on the JGB yield curve," CARF F-Series CARF-F-419, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    • Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf419
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ichiro Fukunaga & Naoya Kato & Junko Koeda, 2015. "Maturity Structure and Supply Factors in Japanese Government Bond Markets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 33, pages 45-96, November.
    2. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Alternative Monetary Policy Tools in a Zero Lower Bound Environment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s1), pages 3-46, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    yield curve; QQE; Bank of Japan; scenario analysis; state space model; Kalman filter;
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