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The German Current Account Surplus: Where Does It Come From, Is It Harmful and Should Germany Do Something about It?

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriel Felbermayr
  • Clemens Fuest
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

In the international economic policy debate Germany is criticized heavily for its current account surplus. This paper describes the factors that have led to the surplus and discusses the policy implications. The current account surplus is mainly a result of higher savings, driven by an ageing population. The claim that the German surplus causes economic damage either in Germany or in other countries is not well founded. But Germany faces growing political pressures related to the threat of protectionism, the risk that a growing creditor position may lead to political backlash, and the fact that European Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedures imply that current account surpluses should not exceed six percent of GDP. To reduce the surplus Germany should focus on a corporate tax reform to boost private investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Clemens Fuest & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2017. "The German Current Account Surplus: Where Does It Come From, Is It Harmful and Should Germany Do Something about It?," EconPol Policy Reports 2, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:econpr:_2
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Grimme & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2017. "Zu den Auswirkungen von Rohstoffpreisänderungen auf den Leistungsbilanzsaldo," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(14), pages 44-46, July.
    2. Baumann, Alexendra & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2019. "Publikationen von Wirtschaftsforschungsinstituten im deutschsprachigen Raum - Eine bibliometrische Analyse [Publications of Economic Research Insitutes in the German Speaking Area - A bibliometric ," MPRA Paper 92240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Faure Emmanuelle & Grekou Carl & Mignon Valérie, 2024. "Current Account Balances’ Divergence in the Euro Area: An Appraisal of the Underlying Forces," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 353-398, January.
    4. Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "When old meets young? Germany's population ageing and the current account," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 315-336.
    5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2020. "Capital flight to Germany: Two alternative measures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    6. Hayo, Bernd & Mierzwa, Sascha, 2023. "The effect of legislated tax changes on the trade balance: Empirical evidence for the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Ingrid Hjertaker & Bent Sofus Tranøy, 2022. "The Dollar as a Mutual Problem: New Transatlantic Interdependence in Finance," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 10(2), pages 198-207.
    8. Taner Akan & Tim Solle, 2022. "Do macroeconomic and financial governance matter? Evidence from Germany, 1950–2019," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(4), pages 993-1045, October.
    9. Murai Taiki, 2024. "The Relationship Between the German Current Account and Financial Account: Evidence from the Toda-Yamamoto Causality Approach," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 65-96.
    10. Christina Graf & Christian Grimme, 2017. "Der Einfluss der Vermögenseinkommen auf den deutschen Leistungsbilanzüberschuss," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(22), pages 38-44, November.
    11. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2022. "What drives the German current account? Household savings, capital investments and public policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    12. Jan Priewe, 2018. "A time bomb for the Euro? Understanding Germany's current account surplus," IMK Studies 59-2018, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    13. Valérie Mignon & Carl Grekou & Emmanuelle Faure, 2023. "Current account balances’ divergence in the euro area: an appraisal of the underlying forces," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-3, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.

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