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Who’s Afraid of Trump in the White House? How German Firms View the US Election

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Listed:
  • Andreas Baur
  • Lisandra Flach
  • Sebastian Link
  • Andreas Peichl

Abstract

How do German firms view the upcoming US election and a possible second Donald Trump presidency? As part of the ifo Business Survey in September 2024, more than 2,000 German manufacturing firms were asked about the US election. 44 percent of German manufacturing firms anticipate negative impacts on their business situation if Donald Trump wins the election, compared to a potential Kamala Harris presidency. Key Messages The US market plays a crucial role for German industry, with a significant portion of German manufacturing firms maintaining export, import, or production relationships with the US economy 44 percent of German manufacturing firms anticipate negative impacts on their business situation if Donald Trump wins the election, compared to a potential Kamala Harris presidency Firms expecting negative consequences from a Trump presidency tend to rate Harris' chances of winning more favorably On the eve of the US elections, only 4 percent of German manufacturing companies are currently planning concrete adjustment measures for a potential second Trump presidency

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Baur & Lisandra Flach & Sebastian Link & Andreas Peichl, 2024. "Who’s Afraid of Trump in the White House? How German Firms View the US Election," EconPol Policy Brief 65, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:econpb:_65
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/EconPol-PolicyBrief_65.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:bre:polbrf:node_10289 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen, 2024. "Rearmament with a Purpose," EconPol Forum, CESifo, vol. 25(04), pages 24-27, July.
    3. Marcel Schlepper, 2024. "Verteidigungspolitische Herausforderungen für die Europäische Union," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 77(05), pages 39-43, May.
    4. Peter E. Robertson, 2022. "The Real Military Balance: International Comparisons of Defense Spending," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(3), pages 797-818, September.
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