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The Effect of Structural Reforms: Do They Differ between GDP and Adjusted Household Disposable Income?

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Listed:
  • Jamila Botev
  • Balazs Egert
  • David Turner

Abstract

The paper considers whether structural reforms have a different impact on adjusted household disposable income (AHDI) compared to GDP, particularly given that while the latter is currently used as the basis for the OECD Economics Department’s framework for evaluating the effect of structural policy reforms, the former is arguably a better measure of welfare. The main findings are that there are indeed a number of structural policies where the long-run effects on GDP and AHDI are proportionately different, so that percentage changes in the two aggregates are significantly different following a policy reform. One group of structural policies, typically those where the transmission mechanism depends mainly on productivity and capital intensity (including cuts in corporate income tax and policies to simulate business R&D) or which can weaken the bargaining power of labour (for example a loosening of EPL), have weaker long-run positive effects on AHDI than GDP. Other structural reform policies (including in-kind family benefits, family cash benefits and cuts in the income tax wedge) have a magnified effect on AHDI, so that following a policy reform, long-run percentage changes in AHDI are larger than for GDP. Cross-referencing the analysis in the paper with structural reform priorities previously identified in the OECD’s regular Going for Growth surveillance exercise, suggests that increased spending on childcare and early childhood education might usefully be part of any policy package to address the ‘cost of living crisis’ currently being faced by many OECD households.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamila Botev & Balazs Egert & David Turner, 2022. "The Effect of Structural Reforms: Do They Differ between GDP and Adjusted Household Disposable Income?," CESifo Working Paper Series 9965, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9965
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Orsetta Causa & Mikkel Hermansen & Nicolas Ruiz, 2016. "The Distributional Impact of Structural Reforms," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1342, OECD Publishing.
    2. David Turner & Hermes Morgavi, 2020. "Revisiting the effect of statutory pension ages on the participation rate," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1616, OECD Publishing.
    3. Balázs Égert & Peter Gal, 2017. "The quantification of structural reforms in OECD countries: A new framework," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2016(1), pages 91-108.
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    5. Balazs Egert & Christine de la Maisonneuve & David Turner, 2022. "A New Macroeconomic Measure of Human Capital Exploiting PISA and PIAAC: Linking Education Policies to Productivity," CESifo Working Paper Series 9728, CESifo.
    6. Orsetta Causa & Alain de Serres & Nicolas Ruiz, 2015. "Can pro-growth policies lift all boats?: An analysis based on household disposable income," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2015(1), pages 227-268.
    7. Oguzhan Akgun & Boris Cournède & Jean-Marc Fournier, 2017. "The effects of the tax mix on inequality and growth," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1447, OECD Publishing.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    household disposable income; structural reforms; childcare; early childhood education; in-kind family benefits; tax wedge; employment; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • J08 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics Policies

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