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The 2020 US Presidential Election: Trump's Wars on Covid-19, Health Insurance, and Trade

Author

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  • James Lake
  • Jun Nie

Abstract

A common narrative is that COVID-19 cost Trump re-election. But, we do not find supporting evidence. Rather, our results highlight the political salience of the trade war and health insurance coverage in the 2020 US Presidential election. US trade war tariffs boosted Trump’s support and foreign retaliation hurt Trump. In particular, the pro-Trump effects of US trade war tariffs were crucial for Trump getting inside the recount thresholds in Georgia and Wisconsin. Even more important politically, voters abandoned Trump in counties with large increases in health insurance coverage since the Affordable Care Act, presumably fearing the roll-back of such expansion. Absent this anti-Trump effect, Trump would have been on the precipice of re-election by winning Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and only losing Wisconsin by a few thousand votes. These effects cross political and racial lines. Thus, our results suggest a mechanism based around the local economic impact of Trump administration policies rather than a mechanism of political polarization.

Suggested Citation

  • James Lake & Jun Nie, 2021. "The 2020 US Presidential Election: Trump's Wars on Covid-19, Health Insurance, and Trade," CESifo Working Paper Series 8856, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8856
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8856.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Lake, James & Nie, Jun, 2023. "The 2020 US Presidential election and Trump’s wars on trade and health insurance," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. James Lake & Jun Nie, 2022. "The 2020 US Presidential Election and Trump's Trade War," CESifo Working Paper Series 9669, CESifo.
    3. Davide Cipullo & Marco Le Moglie, 2021. "To vote, or not to vote: on the epidemiological impact of electoral campaigns at the time of COVID-19," Papers 2103.11753, arXiv.org.
    4. Desmet, Klaus & Wacziarg, Romain, 2022. "JUE Insight: Understanding spatial variation in COVID-19 across the United States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    2020 US Presidential election; Trump; Covid-19; Affordable Care Act; health insurance; trade war; tariffs; retaliation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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