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External Threat, Group Identity, and Support for Common Policies - The Effect of the Russian Invasion in Ukraine on European Union Identity

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  • Kai Gehring

Abstract

A major theory from social psychology claims that external threats can strengthen group identities and cooperation. This paper exploits the Russian invasion in Ukraine 2014 as a sudden increase in the perceived military threat for eastern European Union member states, in particular for the Baltic countries bordering Russia directly. Comparing low versus high-threat member states in a difference-in-differences design, I find a sizeable positive effect on EU identity. It is associated with higher trust in EU institutions and support for common EU policies. Different perceptions of the invasion cause a polarization of preferences between the majority and ethnic Russian minorities.

Suggested Citation

  • Kai Gehring, 2020. "External Threat, Group Identity, and Support for Common Policies - The Effect of the Russian Invasion in Ukraine on European Union Identity," CESifo Working Paper Series 8061, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8061
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp8061.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Axel Dreher & Sarah Langlotz & Johannes Matzat & Christopher Parsons, 2020. "Immigration, Political Ideologies, and the Polarization of American Politics," CESifo Working Paper Series 8789, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    external threats; group identity; nation-building; trust; fiscal federalism; European Union; EU identity; Russia; Ukraine; Baltic;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • F50 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - General
    • H70 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - General
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-
    • Z10 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - General

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