IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_7199.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is Hard Brexit Detrimental to EU Integration? Theory and Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Irena Mikolajun
  • Jean-Marie Viaene

Abstract

In the struggle between the forces of free trade and the restrictive influence of insularism the latter recently seems to have the upper hand. This is illustrated by the referendum of June 23, 2016 where the United Kingdom (UK) voted to leave the European Union (EU). In this paper we evaluate the consequences of this event for EU integration. In particular, we analyze how the extent of EU economic integration would change once the UK leaves the Union. To that end we develop an integration benchmark that consists of the steady state production equilibrium characterized by arbitrage pricing and perfect factor mobility. We apply metrics to measure the distance between this benchmark and the data. We find that the integration in the EU is incomplete and its trend is non-linear while Brexit would not bring negative consequences to its development..

Suggested Citation

  • Irena Mikolajun & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2018. "Is Hard Brexit Detrimental to EU Integration? Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 7199, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7199
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7199.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Martin Uebele, 2013. "What Drives Commodity Market Integration? Evidence from the 1800s," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 59(2), pages 412-442, June.
    2. Djajić, Slobodan & Michael, Michael S. & Vinogradova, Alexandra, 2012. "Migration of skilled workers: Policy interaction between host and source countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1015-1024.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    4. Debaere, Peter & Demiroglu, Ufuk, 2003. "On the similarity of country endowments," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 101-136, January.
    5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    6. Peter K. Schott, 2003. "One Size Fits All? Heckscher-Ohlin Specialization in Global Production," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 686-708, June.
    7. George J. Borjas, 2021. "Does Immigration Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 14, pages 431-484, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. James R. MARKUSEN, 2021. "Factor Movements And Commodity Trade As Complements," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 15, pages 325-340, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Facchini, Giovanni & Mayda, Anna Maria & Mishra, Prachi, 2011. "Do interest groups affect US immigration policy?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 114-128, September.
    10. Dirk Veestraeten, 2008. "Valuing stock options when prices are subject to a lower boundary," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 231-247, March.
    11. Volosovych, Vadym, 2011. "Measuring financial market integration over the long run: Is there a U-shape?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1535-1561.
    12. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    13. Viaene, Jean-Marie & Zilcha, Itzhak, 2002. "Capital markets integration, growth and income distribution," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 301-327, February.
    14. Raymond G. Riezman & John Whalley & Shunming Zhang, 2013. "Metrics capturing the degree to which individual economies are globalized," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(36), pages 5046-5061, December.
    15. Revankar, Nagesh S, 1971. "A Class of Variable Elasticity of Substitution Production Functions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(1), pages 61-71, January.
    16. Albornoz, Facundo & Fanelli, Sebastián & Hallak, Juan Carlos, 2016. "Survival in export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 262-281.
    17. Riezman, Raymond & Whalley, John & Zhang, Shunming, 2011. "Distance measures between free trade and autarky for the world economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2000-2012, July.
    18. Francesco Caselli & James Feyrer, 2007. "The Marginal Product of Capital," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(2), pages 535-568.
    19. Francisco L. Rivera-Batiz & Luis A. Rivera-Batiz, 2018. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Francisco L Rivera-Batiz & Luis A Rivera-Batiz (ed.), International Trade, Capital Flows and Economic Development, chapter 1, pages 3-32, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Harry P. Bowen & Haris Munandar & Jean‐Marie Viaene, 2011. "Are Eu Countries Less Integrated Than U.S. States? Theory And Evidence," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(4), pages 653-677, October.
    21. Kugler, Maurice & Rapoport, Hillel, 2007. "International labor and capital flows: Complements or substitutes?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 155-162, February.
    22. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    23. Ebell, Monique & Hurst, Ian & Warren, James, 2016. "Modelling the long-run economic impact of leaving the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 196-209.
    24. Teti, Feodora & Felbermayr, Gabriel & Yalcin, Erdal, 2017. "Free Trade Agreements, Customs Unions In Disguise?," VfS Annual Conference 2017 (Vienna): Alternative Structures for Money and Banking 168243, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    25. Monique Ebell & James Warren, 2016. "The Long-Term Economic Impact of Leaving the EU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 236(1), pages 121-138, May.
    26. Marco Hoeberichts & Ad Stokman, 2018. "Why price†level dispersion went up in Europe after the financial crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 913-925, March.
    27. Bowen, Harry P & Leamer, Edward E & Sveikauskas, Leo, 1987. "Multicountry, Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance Theory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 791-809, December.
    28. Stuart J. Wilson, 2003. "A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Migration and Capital Formation: The Case of Canada," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), pages 455-481, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Irena Mikolajun & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2019. "Is Hard Brexit Detrimental to EU Integration? Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 621-654, September.
    2. Irena Mikolajun & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2015. "Trade, Factor Mobility and the Extent of Economic Integration: Theory and Evidence," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 15-096/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Irena Mikolajun & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2015. "Trade, Factor Mobility and the Extent of Economic Integration: Theory and Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 5481, CESifo.
    4. Harry P. Bowen & Haris Munandar & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2008. "On the Extent of Economic Integration: A Comparison of E.U. Countries and U.S. States," Discussion Paper Series 2008-01, McColl School of Business, Queens University of Charlotte.
    5. Kleinman, Benny & Liu, Ernest & Redding, Stephen & Yogo, Motohiro, 2023. "Neoclassical Growth in an Interdependent World," CEPR Discussion Papers 18654, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Lorenzo Rotunno & Adrian Wood, 2015. "Wages and endowments in a globalised world," Economics Papers 2015-W11, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    7. Bowen, H. & Munandar, H. & Viaene, J.M., 2006. "Evidence and implications of zipf’s law for integrated economies," Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series 2006-03, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
    8. Zymek, Robert, 2015. "Factor proportions and the growth of world trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 42-53.
    9. Batista, Catia & Potin, Jacques, 2008. "International Specialization and the Return to Capital, 1976-2000," ESSEC Working Papers DR 08001, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
    10. Das, Gouranga G. & Drine, Imed, 2020. "Distance from the technology frontier: How could Africa catch-up via socio-institutional factors and human capital?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    11. Batista Cátia & Potin Jacques, 2015. "International specialization and the return to capital," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 467-508, July.
    12. Catia Batista & Jacques Potin, 2007. "Heckscher-Ohlin Specialization and the Marginal Product of Capital, 1976-2000," Economics Series Working Papers 357, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    13. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1996. "The Poverty of Nations: A Quantitative Exploration," NBER Working Papers 5414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Daron Acemoglu & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2001. "Productivity Differences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 563-606.
    15. Oleg Badunenko & Daniel Henderson & Romain Houssa, 2014. "Significant drivers of growth in Africa," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 339-354, December.
    16. Carolina Arteaga Cabrales, 2011. "Human Capital Externalities and Growth," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 29(66), pages 12-47, December.
    17. Harry Bowen & Haris Munandar & Jean-Marie Viaene, 2010. "How integrated is the world economy?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(3), pages 389-414, September.
    18. Juliana D. Araujo & Povilas Lastauskas & Chris Papageorgiou, 2017. "Evolution of Bilateral Capital Flows to Developing Countries at Intensive and Extensive Margins," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1517-1554, October.
    19. Rotunno, Lorenzo & Wood, Adrian, 2020. "Wage inequality and skill supplies in a globalised world," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 529-547.
    20. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Brexit; regional integration; Euclidean distance; factor mobility; arbitrage pricing; reflected geometric Brownian motion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7199. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.