IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_6188.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Regulatory Chill and the Effect of Investor State Dispute Settlements

Author

Listed:
  • Eckhard Janeba

Abstract

Legal conflicts between multinational firms and host governments are often decided by international arbitration panels - as opposed to courts in the host country - due to provisions in international investment agreements known as Investor State Dispute Settlements (ISDS). Critics fear that investor protection such as ISDS make governments reluctant to adopt appropriate policies (regulatory chill). In this paper I develop a theoretical model in which the outcome of cases brought to court is uncertain due to the vagueness of the law protecting investors and a court’s inability to correctly identify a state of nature with certainty. I show that from a world welfare perspective there is no underregulation, only an overregulation problem. However, from a national welfare perspective “frivolous” lawsuits may lead to regulatory chill. I also identify conditions under which ISDS can lead to a Pareto improvement which involves simultaneous changes in compensation payments and protection rights relative to a national court.

Suggested Citation

  • Eckhard Janeba, 2016. "Regulatory Chill and the Effect of Investor State Dispute Settlements," CESifo Working Paper Series 6188, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6188
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp6188_0.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. P Srinivasan, 2011. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in SAARC Nations: An Econometric Investigation," The IUP Journal of Managerial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 26-42, August.
    2. Eric Neumayer & Peter Nunnenkamp & Martin Roy, 2016. "Are stricter investment rules contagious? Host country competition for foreign direct investment through international agreements," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(1), pages 177-213, February.
    3. Gary S. Becker, 1974. "Crime and Punishment: An Economic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: Essays in the Economics of Crime and Punishment, pages 1-54, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger, 2019. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 1, pages 3-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Marco Bronckers, 2015. "Is Investor–State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) Superior to Litigation Before Domestic Courts? An EU View on Bilateral Trade Agreements," Journal of International Economic Law, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 655-677.
    6. Kohler, Wilhelm & Stähler, Frank, 2019. "The economics of investor protection: ISDS versus national treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    7. Thomas Dietz & Marius Dotzauer, 2015. "Political Dimensions of Investment Arbitration: ISDS and the TTIP Negotiations," ZenTra Working Papers in Transnational Studies 48 / 2015, ZenTra - Center for Transnational Studies.
    8. Axel Berger & Matthias Busse & Peter Nunnenkamp & Martin Roy, 2013. "Do trade and investment agreements lead to more FDI? Accounting for key provisions inside the black box," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 247-275, June.
    9. David Gaukrodger & Kathryn Gordon, 2012. "Investor-State Dispute Settlement: A Scoping Paper for the Investment Policy Community," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2012/3, OECD Publishing.
    10. Berger, Axel & Busse, Matthias & Nunnenkamp, Peter & Roy, Martin, 2011. "More stringent BITs, less ambiguous effects on FDI? Not a bit!," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(3), pages 270-272, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guttorm Schjelderup & Frank Stähler, 2021. "Investor‐state dispute settlement and multinational firm behavior," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 1013-1024, September.
    2. Richardson, Martin & Stähler, Frank, 2019. "International agreements, economic sovereignty and exit," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Kohler, Wilhelm & Stähler, Frank, 2019. "The economics of investor protection: ISDS versus national treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    4. Horn, Henrik, 2022. "Investment Treaty Reform when Regulatory Chill Causes Global Warming," Working Paper Series 1450, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 23 Apr 2024.
    5. Konrad, Kai A., 2017. "Large investors, regulatory taking and investor-state dispute settlement," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 341-353.
    6. Horn, Henrik & Norbäck, Pehr-Johan, 2018. "A Non-Technical Introduction to Economic Aspects of International Investment Agreements," Working Paper Series 1250, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    7. Horn, Henrik & Tangerås, Thomas, 2021. "Economics of international investment agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Thow, Anne Marie & Garde, Amandine & Winters, L. Alan & Johnson, Ellen & Mabhala, Andi & Kingston, Paul & Barlow, Pepita, 2022. "Protecting noncommunicable disease prevention policy in trade and investment agreements," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114937, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Frank Stähler, 2023. "An optimal investor-state dispute settlement mechanism," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 1-16, January.
    10. Curran, Louise, 2024. "Investor state dispute settlement (ISDS) and the social licence to operate of international business: An analysis of controversial cases," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(2).
    11. Ossa, Ralph & Staiger, Robert W. & Sykes, Alan O., 2023. "Standing in international investment and trade disputes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Haufler, Andreas & Mardan, Mohammed & Schindler, Dirk, 2018. "Double tax discrimination to attract FDI and fight profit shifting: The role of CFC rules," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 25-43.
    13. Ralph Ossa & Robert W. Staiger & Alan O. Sykes, 2020. "Disputes in International Investment and Trade," NBER Working Papers 27012, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nunnenkamp Peter, 2016. "Demokratie und internationale Investitionsabkommen: (Überraschende) Zusammenhänge und (lückenhafte) Erklärungen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 364-382, December.
    2. Federico Carril‐Caccia & Elena Pavlova, 2020. "Mergers and acquisitions & trade: A global value chain analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 586-614, March.
    3. Xiong, Tingting, 2022. "The Effect of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BITs) on the extensive and intensive margins of exports," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 68-79.
    4. Josef C. Brada & Zdenek Drabek & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2021. "Does Investor Protection Increase Foreign Direct Investment? A Meta‐Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 34-70, February.
    5. Emma Aisbett & Matthias Busse & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2018. "Bilateral investment treaties as deterrents of host-country discretion: the impact of investor-state disputes on foreign direct investment in developing countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(1), pages 119-155, February.
    6. Simon Hartmann & Rok Spruk, 2023. "The impact of unilateral BIT terminations on FDI: Quasi-experimental evidence from India," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 259-296, April.
    7. Monika Sztajerowska, 2021. "International Investment Agreements, Double-Taxation Treaties and Multinational Activity: The (Heterogeneous) Effects of Binding," PSE Working Papers halshs-03265057, HAL.
    8. Markus Leibrecht & Christian Bellak, 2023. "Investment policy reform as a driver of foreign direct investment: Evidence from China," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(4), pages 1035-1053, October.
    9. Monika Sztajerowska, 2021. "International Investment Agreements, Double-Taxation Treaties and Multinational Activity: The (Heterogeneous) Effects of Binding," Working Papers halshs-03265057, HAL.
    10. Shah, Mumtaz Hussain & Faiz, Mehreen, 2015. "Terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment: An Empirical Analysis of SAARC Countries," MPRA Paper 82008, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Federico Carril-Caccia & Juliette Milgram-Baleix & Jordi Paniagua, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment in oil-abundant countries: The role of institutions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(4), pages 1-23, April.
    12. Bickenbach, Frank & Liu, Wan-Hsin & Li, Guoxue, 2015. "The EU-China bilateral investment agreement in negotiation: Motivation, conflicts and perspectives," Kiel Policy Brief 95, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    13. Julian Donaubauer & Eric Neumayer & Peter Nunnenkamp, 2018. "Winning or losing in investor‐to‐state dispute resolution: The role of arbitrator bias and experience," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 892-916, September.
    14. Nguyen Phuc Canh & Nguyen Thanh Binh & Su Dinh Thanh & Christophe Schinckus, 2020. "Determinants of foreign direct investment inflows: The role of economic policy uncertainty," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 161, pages 159-172.
    15. Tung Son Ha & Vu Tuan Chu & Mai Tuyet Thi Nguyen & Dung Hoai Thi Nguyen & Anh Ngoc Thi Nguyen, 2021. "The impact of Greenfield investment on domestic entrepreneurship," Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
    16. Aisbett, Emma & Busse, Matthias & Nunnenkamp, Peter, 2016. "Bilateral investment treaties do work: Until they don't," Kiel Working Papers 2021, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    17. Frank Stähler, 2023. "An optimal investor-state dispute settlement mechanism," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 138(1), pages 1-16, January.
    18. Lay, Jann & Tafese, Tevin, 2020. "Promoting private investment to create jobs: A review of the evidence," PEGNet Policy Studies 02/2020, PEGNet - Poverty Reduction, Equity and Growth Network, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    19. Guttorm Schjelderup & Frank Stähler, 2021. "Investor‐state dispute settlement and multinational firm behavior," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 1013-1024, September.
    20. Maria Borga & Perla Ibarlucea Flores & Monika Sztajerowska, 2020. "Drivers of divestment decisions of multinational enterprises - A cross-country firm-level perspective," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2019/03, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor State Dispute Settlement; regulatory chill; international investment agreement; foreign direct investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.