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Exchange Rate Uncertainty and International Portfolio Flows

Author

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Faek Menla Ali
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on different components of portfolio flows, namely equity and bond flows, as well as the dynamic linkages between exchange rate volatility and the variability of these two types of flows. Specifically, a bivariate GARCH-BEKK-in-mean model is estimated using bilateral data for the US vis-à-vis Australia, the UK, Japan, Canada, the euro area, and Sweden over the period 1988:01-2011:12. The results indicate that the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on equity flows is negative in the euro area, the UK and Sweden, and positive in Australia, whilst it is negative in all countries except Canada (where it is positive) in the case of bond flows. Under the assumption of risk aversion, this suggests that exchange rate uncertainty induces a home bias and causes investors to reduce their financing activities to maximise returns and minimize exposure to uncertainty. Furthermore, since exchange rate volatility and the variability of flows are interlinked, exchange rate or credit controls on these flows can be used to pursue economic and financial stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Faek Menla Ali & Nicola Spagnolo, 2013. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and International Portfolio Flows," CESifo Working Paper Series 4234, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4234
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp4234.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Andreas M. & Greminger, Rafael P. & Grisse, Christian & Kaufmann, Sylvia, 2021. "Portfolio rebalancing in times of stress," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Odili Okwuchukwu, 2015. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Stock Market Performance and Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 5(2), pages 172-184, April.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Faek Menla Ali & Fabio Spagnolo & Nicola Spagnolo, 2015. "International Portfolio Flows and Exchange Rate Volatility for Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 5615, CESifo.
    4. Shuping Li & Xinghua Liu & Chongren Wang, 2020. "The Influence of Internet Finance on the Sustainable Development of the Financial Ecosystem in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-15, March.
    5. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Theoretical and Empirical Differences between Diagonal and Full BEKK for Risk Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, June.
    6. Reaz, Md & Mahat, Fauziah & Dahir, Ahmed Mohamed & Sahabuddin, Mohammad & Al Mahi, Abu Saad Md Masnun, 2017. "Exchange rate volatility and financial performance of agriculture firms in Malaysia: An empirical analysis using GARCH, wavelet and system GMM," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 13(3).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate uncertainty; equity flows; bond flows; causality-in-variance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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