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Debt Sustainability and Financial Crises: Evidence from the GIIPS

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  • Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi
  • Costas Milas

Abstract

We assess the sustainability of the public finances of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain (GIIPS), allowing for possible non-linearities in the form of threshold behaviour of the fiscal authorities. We provide some evidence of fiscal sustainability when debt gets “too high” relative to a threshold which is not necessarily fixed but varies with the level of debt relative to its recent history and/or the occurrence of a financial crisis. However, the Greek and Italian debt-to-GDP threshold levels (over which adjustment takes place) exceed 87% and rise further in periods of financial crises. This arguably adds to international investors’ concerns, and as a result, raises the yields demanded for holding Greek and Italian debt. As debt is rolled over at high interest rates, fiscal prospects worsen making default more likely and adding to contagion effects from one Eurozone country to another.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriella Deborah Legrenzi & Costas Milas, 2011. "Debt Sustainability and Financial Crises: Evidence from the GIIPS," CESifo Working Paper Series 3594, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3594
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ruthira Naraidoo & Leroi Raputsoane, 2015. "Debt Sustainability and Financial Crises in South Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(1), pages 224-233, January.
    3. Aviral K. Tiwari & Suleyman Bolat & Mihai Mutascu, 2016. "The Behaviour of US and UK Public Debt: Further Evidence Based on Time Varying Parameters," Journal Transition Studies Review, Transition Academia Press, vol. 23(1), pages 11-19.
    4. Aviral Kumar Tiwari, 2012. "Debt Sustainability in India: Empirical Evidence Estimating Time-Varying Parameters," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1133-1141.
    5. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/29, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    debt sustainability; financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • C20 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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