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Liquidity Risk, Credit Risk and the Overnight Interest Rate Spread: A Stochastic Volatility Modelling Approach

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  • John Beirne
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Nicola Spagnolo

Abstract

In this paper we model the volatility of the spread between the overnight interest rate and the central bank policy rate (the policy spread) for the euro area and the UK during the two main phases of the financial crisis that began in late 2007. During the crisis, the policy spread exhibited signs of volatility, owing to the breakdown in interbank market activity. The determinants of this volatility are assessed using Stochastic Volatility models to gauge the role played by liquidity risk, credit risk (financial and sovereign), and interest rate expectations. Our results suggest that liquidity risk is the main determinant of the volatility of the policy spread, but also that private bank credit risk has become more apparent in the post-Lehman collapse phase of the crisis for the euro area as financial CDS premia rose due to possible default fears. In addition, the ECB appears to have been more effective in addressing liquidity risk since the onset of the crisis, and this may be related to its greater direct access to a broader range of counterparties and its acceptance of a broader range of eligible collateral. The main implication is that, in crisis times, a sufficiently flexible operational framework for monetary policy implementation produces the most timely response to market tensions.

Suggested Citation

  • John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Nicola Spagnolo, 2010. "Liquidity Risk, Credit Risk and the Overnight Interest Rate Spread: A Stochastic Volatility Modelling Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 3115, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_3115
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    1. Quiros, Gabriel Perez & Mendizabal, Hugo Rodriguez, 2006. "The Daily Market for Funds in Europe: What Has Changed with the EMU?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 91-118, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yu-Fu & Funke, Michael, 2010. "Global Warming And Extreme Events: Rethinking The Timing And Intensity Of Environmental Policy," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-48, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    2. Cécile Bastidon & Nicolas Huchet & Yusuf Kocoðlu, 2013. "A Second Dip in the Euro Area Money Market in 2011? Interbank Risk Premia and the ECB Bonds and Money Markets Policy," The Journal of European Theoretical and Applied Studies, The Center for European Studies at Kirklareli University - Turkey, vol. 1(1), pages 11-52.
    3. Piotr Fiszeder & Ilona Pietryka, 2018. "Monetary policy in steering the EONIA and POLONIA rates in the Eurosystem and Poland: a comparative analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 445-470, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    overnight interest rate spread; liquidity risk; credit risk; stochastic volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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