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Unveiling the Unseen Illness: Public Health Warnings and Heat Stroke

Author

Listed:
  • Lester Lusher
  • Tim Ruberg

Abstract

We utilize region-day variation in actual vs. forecasted weather conditions (i.e. forecasting errors) to comprehensively investigate the effects of the first heat-health warning system in Japan. We find that heat alerts led to a 17% increase in heat stroke counts. An analysis of mechanisms suggests this is primarily driven by increased reporting, as opposed to potential “adverse” behavioral responses or substitution in health diagnoses. Four times as many heat strokes are detected in low-income neighborhoods compared to high-income neighborhoods. We further document evidence of avoidance behaviors (e.g. electricity usage), but find no evidence of improved (or worsened) mortality outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Lester Lusher & Tim Ruberg, 2025. "Unveiling the Unseen Illness: Public Health Warnings and Heat Stroke," CESifo Working Paper Series 11772, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11772
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    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp11772.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    heat stroke; climate change; warning effectiveness; avoidance behavior;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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