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The Lifecycle of Protests in the Digital Age

Author

Listed:
  • Pierre C. Boyer
  • Germain Gauthier
  • Yves Le Yaouanq
  • Vincent Rollet
  • Benoît Schmutz-Bloch

Abstract

We propose a theory of protest dynamics with heterogeneous protest technology and intensity. The ability to mobilize online reduces the likelihood of coordination failures at both the extensive (engagement) and intensive (violence) margins. We build a dynamic coordination game with strategic substitutability and endogenous learning, and use it to characterize a crowd-in-then-crowd-out sequence in which social media initially helps launch massive protests, but then encourages radical factions to turn violent, leading moderates to leave the movement. This sequence is illustrated using online and offline data on the 2018 Yellow Vest uprising in France, whose early success and popularity were abruptly undermined by street violence. First, spatial regressions confirm that online and offline mobilizations reinforced each other at the beginning of the movement. Second, our textual analysis reveals that online conversations among protesters progressively radicalized. Using a decomposition with discussant, page, and period fixed effects, we show that (i) half of this trend was due to changes in the composition of online protesters and (ii) more radicalized pages drove out moderate discussants.

Suggested Citation

  • Pierre C. Boyer & Germain Gauthier & Yves Le Yaouanq & Vincent Rollet & Benoît Schmutz-Bloch, 2024. "The Lifecycle of Protests in the Digital Age," CESifo Working Paper Series 11257, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11257
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peterson, Andrew & Spirling, Arthur, 2018. "Classification Accuracy as a Substantive Quantity of Interest: Measuring Polarization in Westminster Systems," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 120-128, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    protests; learning traps; crowding-out; violence; social media; NLP;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • L82 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Entertainment; Media
    • Z13 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Economic Sociology; Economic Anthropology; Language; Social and Economic Stratification

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