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Monetary Policy and Radical Uncertainty

Author

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  • Paul De Grauwe
  • Yuemei Ji

Abstract

In a world of radical uncertainty the frequency distributions of economic variables deviate from the normal distribution and typically exhibit fat tails. We show that this feature is obtained in simple models where agents have cognitive limitations and fail to understand the underlying model. Although the model is simple, we obtain great complexity. We analyse the implications for monetary policy. We show that in such models the central bank bears a much greater responsibility to stabilize an otherwise unstable system than in mainstream models that assume Rational Expectations. We also question the use of impulse responses to exogenous shocks when the distribution of these impulse responses is not normal.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Radical Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 11068, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11068
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180.
    2. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2021. "On the Use of Current or Forward-Looking Data in Monetary Policy: A Behavioural Macroeconomic Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 8853, CESifo.
    3. Alex Brazier & Richard Harrison & Mervyn King & Tony Yates, 2008. "The Danger of Inflating Expectations of Macroeconomic Stability: Heuristic Switching in an Overlapping-Generations Monetary Model," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 4(2), pages 219-254, June.
    4. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    5. Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "Lectures on Behavioral Macroeconomics," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 9891.
    6. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2024. "Trust and monetary policy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120871, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    radical uncertainty; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E70 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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