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Does Index Arbitrage Distort the Market Reaction to Shocks?

Author

Listed:
  • Stanislav Anatolyev
  • Sergei Seleznev
  • Veronika Selezneva

Abstract

We show that ETF arbitrage distorts the market reaction to fundamental shocks. We confirm this hypothesis by creating a new measure of the intensity of arbitrage transactions at the individual stock level and using an event study analysis to estimate the market reaction to economic shocks. Our measure of the intensity of arbitrage is the probability of simultaneous trading of ETF shares with shares of underlying stocks estimated using high frequency data. Our approach is direct, and it accounts for statistical arbitrage, passive investment strategies, and netting of arbitrage positions over the day, which the existing measures cannot do. We conduct several empirical tests, including the use of a quasi-natural experiment, to confirm that our measure captures uctuations in the intensity of arbitrage transactions. We focus on oil shocks because they contain a large idiosyncratic component which facilitates identication of our mechanism and interpretation of the results. Oil shocks are identified using weekly oil inventory announcements.

Suggested Citation

  • Stanislav Anatolyev & Sergei Seleznev & Veronika Selezneva, 2019. "Does Index Arbitrage Distort the Market Reaction to Shocks?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp651, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    • Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp651
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    high-frequency data; stock market; ETF; arbitrage intensity; oil shock; market efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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