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The Czech Economic Transition: Exploring Options Using a Macrosectoral Model

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  • Frank Barry
  • John Bradley
  • Michal Kejak
  • David Vavra

Abstract

The processes that will drive the next stage of the Czech transition are likely to be similar to those promoting real convergence in the EU cohesion countries. We draw on previous modelling research on the cohesion economies to construct and calibrate a small macrosectoral model of the Czech Republic that serves to highlight key policy issues facing CEE-country decision-makers. Four scenarios are then explored by simulation: the first projects the current pattern of disequilibrium wage setting into the future, while a second looks at the consequences of labour market reform. The other scenarios highlight some of the differences between policy strategies based on indigenous versus FDI-driven export-led growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank Barry & John Bradley & Michal Kejak & David Vavra, 2000. "The Czech Economic Transition: Exploring Options Using a Macrosectoral Model," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp158, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    • Handle: RePEc:cer:papers:wp158
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 329-379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Frank Barry (ed.), 1999. "Understanding Ireland’s Economic Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-333-98505-2, December.
    3. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer (ed.), 1991. "NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262521652, April.
    4. Barry, Frank & Bradley, John, 1997. "FDI and Trade: The Irish Host-Country Experience," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1798-1811, November.
    5. Bradley, John & Gerald, John Fitz, 1990. "Production structures in a small open economy with mobile and indigenous investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(2-3), pages 364-374, May.
    6. Fischer, S., 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," Working papers 580, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    7. Bradley, John & Herce, Jose-Antonio & Modesto, Leonor, 1995. "Modelling in the EU periphery : The HERMIN project," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 219-220, July.
    8. Stanley Fischer, 1991. "Growth, Macroeconomics, and Development," NBER Working Papers 3702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Biljana Petkovska, 2008. "Estimation of the investment function for the Republic of Macedonia," Working Papers 2008-04, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    2. DRAGOTÄ‚ Violeta Gianina & BUZILÄ‚ Nicoleta & DOGAN Mihaela Simona, 2013. "Importance of Investments in Romania by European Funds," Anale. Seria Stiinte Economice. Timisoara, Faculty of Economics, Tibiscus University in Timisoara, vol. 0, pages 220-224, May.
    3. Marek Radvanský, . "Impact of Cohesion Policy on Regional Development of Slovakia," Books, Institute of Economic Research, SAS, edition 1, number eb01, December.
    4. Petr Jakubík, 2010. "Household Response to the Economic Crisis Micro-simulation for the Czech Economy," IFC Working Papers 6, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Petr Jakubík, 2011. "Household Balance Sheets and Economic Crisis," Working Papers IES 2011/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2011.
    6. Michal Kejak & David Vavra, 2004. "Factor Accumulation Story: Any Unfinished Business?," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp220, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    7. John Bradley & Timo Mitze & Edgar Morgenroth & Gerhard Untiedt, 2005. "An Integrated Micro-Macro (IMM) Approach to the Evaluation of Large-scale Public Investment Programmes: The Case of EU Structural Funds," Papers WP167, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. Kejak, Michal & Seiter, Stephan & Vavra, David, 2004. "Accession trajectories and convergence: endogenous growth perspective," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 13-46, March.
    9. Barry, Frank, 2004. "Export-platform foreign direct investment: the Irish experience," EIB Papers 6/2004, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • P20 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - General
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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