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On the Credibility of Big Bang Programs: A Note on Wage Claims and Soft Budget Constraints on Economies in Transition

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  • F Coricelli
  • G Milesi-Feretti

Abstract

The paper examines cases in which from a production efficiency standpoint "big bang" programs are superior to gradualist programs. Nevertheless, in the presence of (I) uncertainty about the exogenous shocks, (ii) dependence of policy actions on the state of the economy, and (iii) uncertain future of firms in the context of a generalized short-run output contraction, "big bang" programs can lead to inferior outcomes. We argue that short-term effects of a "big-bang" on output and employment may endogenously weaken the credibility of the program. This can induce perverse behaviour on the part of the economic agents, leading to outcomes that are worse than those associated with a gradual program. For example, if the government is perceived to face a political constraints that make high rates of unemployment unacceptable, then workers' wage claims may be "too high" because of the perception of a government bailout of insolvent firms should times be tough.

Suggested Citation

  • F Coricelli & G Milesi-Feretti, 1993. "On the Credibility of Big Bang Programs: A Note on Wage Claims and Soft Budget Constraints on Economies in Transition," CEP Discussion Papers dp0124, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0124
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    Cited by:

    1. Lyons, Robert F. & Rausser, Gordon C. & Simon, Leo K., 1996. "Putty-clay politics in transition economies," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt0t30p88v, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    2. Kornai, János & Maskin, Eric & Roland, Gérard, 2022. "A puha költségvetési korlát - II [The soft budget constraint II]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 94-132.
    3. J. Kornai & E. Maskin & G. Roland, 2004. "Understanding the Soft Budget Constraint," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 11.
    4. Bodó, Péter, 1996. "Az ügynökprobléma néhány aspektusa az átmeneti gazdaságban [Some aspects of the agent problem in the transition economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 342-349.
    5. Xie, Yinxi & Xie, Yang, 2017. "Machiavellian experimentation," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 685-711.
    6. Radygin Alexandr & Entov Revold & Mejeraoups I., 2007. "External Mechanisms of Corporate Governance," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 104P.

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