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The Antipoverty Impact of the EITC: New Estimates from Survey and Administrative Tax Records

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  • Maggie R. Jones
  • James P. Ziliak

Abstract

We reassess the antipoverty effects of the EITC using unique data linking the CPS Annual Social and Economic Supplement to IRS data for the same individuals spanning years 2005-2016. We compare EITC benefits from standard simulators to administrative EITC payments and find that significantly more actual EITC payments flow to childless tax units than predicted, and to those whose family income places them above official poverty thresholds. However, actual EITC payments appear to be target efficient at the tax unit level. In 2016, about 3.1 million persons were lifted out of poverty by the EITC, substantially less than prior estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Maggie R. Jones & James P. Ziliak, 2019. "The Antipoverty Impact of the EITC: New Estimates from Survey and Administrative Tax Records," Working Papers 19-14, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    • Handle: RePEc:cen:wpaper:19-14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Holtzblatt, Janet & McCubbin, Janet, 2003. "Whose Child Is It Anyway? Simplifying the Definition of a Child," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 56(3), pages 701-718, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zachary Parolin & Megan Curran & Jordan Matsudaira & Jane Waldfogel & Christopher Wimer, 2022. "Estimating Monthly Poverty Rates in the United States," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 1177-1203, September.
    2. Manasi Deshpande & Lee M. Lockwood, 2022. "Beyond Health: Nonhealth Risk and the Value of Disability Insurance," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1781-1810, July.
    3. Otto Lenhart, 2023. "The earned income tax credit and food insecurity," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 105(5), pages 1543-1570, October.
    4. David Brady & Zachary Parolin, 2020. "The Levels and Trends in Deep and Extreme Poverty in the United States, 1993–2016," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2337-2360, December.
    5. Gloria G. Aldana, 2024. "Comparison of Child Reporting in the American Community Survey and Federal Income Tax Returns Based on California Birth Records," Working Papers 24-55, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Bastian, Jacob E. & Jones, Maggie R., 2021. "Do EITC expansions pay for themselves? Effects on tax revenue and government transfers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    7. Margaret E. Brehm & Olga Malkova, 2023. "The Child Tax Credit over Time by Family Type: Benefit Eligibility and Poverty," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76(3), pages 707-741.
    8. Iselin, John & Mackay, Taylor & Unrath, Matthew, 2023. "Measuring take-up of the California EITC with state administrative data," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    9. Zachary Parolin & Megan Curran & Jordan Matsudaira & Jane Waldfogel & Christoper Wimer, 2021. "Estimating Monthly Poverty Rates in the United States," Poverty and Social Policy Brief 20415, Center on Poverty and Social Policy, Columbia University.

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