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Sobre Burbujas De Precios De Activos, Expectativas Y Equilibrios

Author

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  • José Pablo Dapena

Abstract

De acuerdo a la literatura el precio de un activo (financiero o real) experimenta una burbuja si su precio de mercado se encuentra desajustado de manera persistente en el tiempo con respecto a su valor "intrínseco" o fundamental. En un contexto de racionalidad y eficiencia es difícil aceptar la existencia de estos fenómenos, sin embargo la literatura se ha encargado de reflejar que dichas situaciones pueden ser consistentes en un contexto de optimización y racionalidad, sobre todo cuando el horizonte de vida de los inversores es finito, existe poca variedad de alternativas de inversión, o existen situaciones de información imperfecta con falta de coordinación. Dadas estas situaciones, en el proceso de sostenimiento de la burbuja las expectativas de los inversores acerca del precio del activo adquieren un rol fundamental. En el presente trabajo se expone un modelo donde bajo ciertas condiciones el equilibrio en precios es consistente con las expectativas de los inversores, reaccionando dicho equilibrio a los cambios en las mismas, es decir que el equilibrio es condicional en el nivel de expectativas y en el manejo que de ellas se pueda hacer, sin perjuicio de potenciales efectos de “manada” en situaciones de información imperfecta. En el final del trabajo exponemos información sintética sobre casos que pueden ser presentados como burbujas a los efectos de la discusión de su naturaleza.

Suggested Citation

  • José Pablo Dapena, 2007. "Sobre Burbujas De Precios De Activos, Expectativas Y Equilibrios," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 361, Universidad del CEMA.
  • Handle: RePEc:cem:doctra:361
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    File URL: https://www.ucema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/documentos/361.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
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    3. Grossman, Gene M. & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 1993. "Asset bubbles and endogenous growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 3-19, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Activos financieros; burbujas; expectativas; conducta; equilibrio.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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