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Projeção dos impactos econômicos regionais do desastre de Mariana-MG

Author

Listed:
  • Thiago Cavalcante Simonato

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

  • Edson Paulo Domingues

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

  • Aline Souza Magalhaes

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

Abstract

The large-scale economic damage and losses caused by disasters have attracted the attention of specialists who are studying ways of modeling that kind of impacts. In face of the deep losses and damages caused by the disaster in Mariana, on November 5th, 2015, this work aims to project the main regional economic impacts of the event. The main contribution is to provide methodology and results that will collaborate in the evaluation of the economic effects of the disaster. To do so, we have developed a dynamic model of Computable General Equilibrium, especially built for municipalities directly and indirectly affected by the disaster, in order to capture the regional economic impacts in the period from 2016 to 2020. The results indicate that, generally, the five-year post disaster were insufficient for the retake of production, family consumption, employment, investment and trade, even in the event of the resumption of the total Mariana production in 2018. In addition, the results suggest a great interdependence in the absorption of negative impacts by the regions along the Doce river

Suggested Citation

  • Thiago Cavalcante Simonato & Edson Paulo Domingues & Aline Souza Magalhaes, 2018. "Projeção dos impactos econômicos regionais do desastre de Mariana-MG," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 586, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td586
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    File URL: https://www.cedeplar.ufmg.br/pesquisas/td/TD%20586.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Thais Waideman Niquito & Fernando Pozzobon & Vinícius Halmenschlager & Felipe Garcia Ribeiro, 2021. "Human-made disasters and economic impact for a developing economy: evidence from Brazil," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(3), pages 2313-2341, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mariana Disaster; General Computable Equilibrium; Economics of Disaster; Regional Economics.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q51 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Valuation of Environmental Effects
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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