Volatilidade dos fluxos financeiros e fuga de capitais: uma análise exploratória da vulnerabilidade externa no Brasil

In recent years, Brazilian economic performance has been influenced by increasingly volatile financial flows and episodes of capital flight, which have occurred mainly due to external events, out of control or influence of the domestic monetary authorities. This paper aims to measure the volatility of financial flows in Brazil and to apply different measures of capital flight, in order to analyze the external vulnerability of the Brazilian economy. The main goal is to compare the volatility indicators and measures of capital flight in order to evaluate which indicator best reveals the potential for reversion of financial flows to Brazil and best captures external vulnerability in the economy. Our empirical results suggest that there is a close relationship between the two indicators examined. While volatility of financial flows may capture moments when Brazil is facing a period of inflows of international resources and the transition to sharp reversals and large negative transfers, capital flight may indicate the sensitivity of capital flows toward Brazil due to unstable factors and external shocks. In this sense, the capital flight as the one which occurred in 2008 may be explained by high volatility of capital flows.