IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdp/texdis/td248.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Um sistema de dinâmica demográfica para os municípios amazônicos

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

  • Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho

    (Cedeplar-UFMG)

Abstract

Population growth and migration represent an important underlying cause of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Models designed to simulate deforestation should therefore incorporate a demographic dynamics system to help project the influence of these variables on the location and rates of deforestation across the basin. We present a demographic model that projects population at municipality level by computing migration fluxes among the Amazonian municipalities and in and outward the region, as well as their crude birth and death rates. The annual projections from 1995 to 2035 are based mainly on mortality, fertility and migration data from 1991’s and 2000’s IBGE census. The model assumes a logistic curve to project the municipalities’ crude birth and death rates, which are derived using specific functions of fertility and mortality by age. The migratory fluxes were determined by establishing a origin-destiny matrix for all the Amazonian municipalities and Brazilian states for the 1995-2000 time period. VESIM, a system-thinking software which allows the solution of simultaneous equation for the 810 defined spatial units by employing integration techniques - such as the Runge-Kutta method, is used to implement the simulation model. Validation was performed comparing 2000’s IBGE municipality data. The model is designed to handle various scenarios of regional migration in face of the current projects to expand infrastructure across the Amazon region.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Alexandrino Garcia & Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho, 2005. "Um sistema de dinâmica demográfica para os municípios amazônicos," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td248, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td248
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cedeplar.ufmg.br/pesquisas/td/TD%20248.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Duchesne, Louis, 1989. "Proyecciones de población, por sexo y edad, para áreas intermedias y menores: método relación de cohortes"," Series Históricas 9189, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.

      More about this item

      Keywords

      demographic model; regional migration; Brazilian Amazon;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • R19 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Other

      Statistics

      Access and download statistics

      Corrections

      All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td248. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

      If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

      If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

      If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

      For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gustavo Britto (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pufmgbr.html .

      Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

      IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.