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The Cost Escalation of Rail Projects: Using Previous Experience to Re-Evaluate the CalSpeed Estimates

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  • Leavitt, Dan
  • Ennis, Sean
  • McGovern, Pat

Abstract

This report is a follow-up study to last year's CalSpeed publication, "High-Speed Trains for California," Working Paper No. 565. The purpose of this paper is to test rigorously and critically the cost estimate methodology presented in that previous working paper. This has been accomplished primarily by focusing on the issue of cost escalation of rail projects, with reference to both U.S. and foreign experience.

Suggested Citation

  • Leavitt, Dan & Ennis, Sean & McGovern, Pat, 1993. "The Cost Escalation of Rail Projects: Using Previous Experience to Re-Evaluate the CalSpeed Estimates," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt2rt1w7xj, University of California Transportation Center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt2rt1w7xj
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    Cited by:

    1. Bent Flyvbjerg & Mette K. Skamris holm & Søren L. Buhl, 2003. "How common and how large are cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects?," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 71-88, January.
    2. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Bester, Dirk W., 2021. "The Cost-Benefit Fallacy: Why Cost-Benefit Analysis Is Broken and How to Fix It," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 395-419, October.
    3. Bent Flyvbjerg & Mette K. Skamris Holm & Søren L. Buhl, 2005. "Inaccuracy in Traffic Forecasts," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 1-24, April.
    4. Catalão, Francisco Pinheiro & Cruz, Carlos Oliveira & Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda, 2019. "The determinants of cost deviations and overruns in transport projects, an endogenous models approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 224-238.
    5. Chantal C. Cantarelli & Bent Flyvbjerg, 2013. "Mega-projects’ cost performance and lock-in: problems and solutions," Chapters, in: Hugo Priemus & Bert van Wee (ed.), International Handbook on Mega-Projects, chapter 15, pages 333-355, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Ansar, Atif & Budzier, Alexander & Buhl, Søren & Cantarelli, Chantal & Garbuio, Massimo & Glenting, Carsten & Holm, Mette Skamris & Lovallo, Dan & Lunn, Daniel & Molin, Eric & Rønnes, 2018. "Five things you should know about cost overrun," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 174-190.
    7. Bent Flyvbjerg & Mette K. Skamris Holm & S{o}ren L. Buhl, 2013. "Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?," Papers 1303.6604, arXiv.org.
    8. Flyvbjerg, Bent & Holm, Mette Skamris & Buhl, Søren, 2006. "Underestimating Costs in Public Works Projects: Error or Lie?," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt98r01936, University of California Transportation Center.
    9. Leavitt, Daniel & Cheng, Peter & Vaca, Erin & Hall, Peter, 1994. "Potential for Improved Intercity Passenger Rail Service in California: Study of Corridors," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt3cn732tv, University of California Transportation Center.
    10. Hugo Priemus & Bert van Wee (ed.), 2013. "International Handbook on Mega-Projects," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14791.

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    Social and Behavioral Sciences;

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