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The Comovements Between Real Activity and Prices

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  • den Haan, Wouter J.
  • SUMNER, STEVEN W

Abstract

In this paper, we study the short-run and long-run comovement between prices and real activity in the G7 countries during the postwar period using VAR forecast errors and frequency domain filters. We find that there are several patterns of the correlation coefficients that are the same in all countries. In particular, the correlation at the "long-run" horizon is virtually always negative and the correlation at the "short-run" horizon is typically substantially higher. Although there is evidence of positive "short-run" correlations for some countries it is not very robust to the choice of the price and output variables. In addition, we propose a more efficient method to calculate the covariances of VAR forecast errors and--in contrast to claims made in the literature--we show that band-pass filters isolate the desired set of frequencies not only when the series are stationary but also when they are first or second-order integrated processes.

Suggested Citation

  • den Haan, Wouter J. & SUMNER, STEVEN W, 2001. "The Comovements Between Real Activity and Prices," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8c23205t, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt8c23205t
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Martín Gonzalez Rozada & José Fanelli, 2003. "Business Cycle and Macroeconomic Policy Coordination in MERCOSUR," Business School Working Papers uno, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    2. Bernd Süssmuth, 2002. "National and Supranational Business Cycles (1960-2000): A multivariate description of central G7 and EURO15 NIPA aggregates," CESifo Working Paper Series 658, CESifo.
    3. Simon van Norden, 2002. "Filtering for Current Analysis," Staff Working Papers 02-28, Bank of Canada.
    4. Blanca Sanchez-Robles & Jose Villaverde, 2001. "Costs of EMU from a regional approach: the Spanish case," ERSA conference papers ersa01p52, European Regional Science Association.
    5. Araujo, Eurilton & Cunha, Alexandre, 2002. "Brazilian Inflation and GDP from 1850 to 2000: An Empirical Investigation," Insper Working Papers wpe_26, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
    6. Ana Lamo & Javier J. P鲥z & Ludger Schuknecht, 2013. "The cyclicality of consumption, wages and employment of the public sector in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1551-1569, April.
    7. Van Norden, Simon, 2004. "Filtres pour l’analyse courante," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(2), pages 523-546, Juin-Sept.
    8. Jesus Vazquez, 2002. "The co-movement between output and prices in the EU15 countries: an empirical investigation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(14), pages 957-966.
    9. den Haan, Wouter J. & Sumner, Steven W., 2004. "The comovement between real activity and prices in the G7," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1333-1347, December.
    10. Wouter J. den Haan, 2002. "The Comovement between Real Activity and Prices in the G7," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-092/2, Tinbergen Institute.

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    Keywords

    VAR; short-run;

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