Development of Empirical-Mechanistic Pavement Performance Models using Data from the Washington State PMS Database

A Pavement Management System (PMS) is a decision-support tool that aids public agencies in planning maintenance activities of their facilities. A complete PMS involves the following tasks: inspecting facilities and collecting data, predicting the deterioration of facilities through performance models, and optimizing the Maintenance, Rehabilitation, and Reconstruction (MR&R) policies over the planning horizon. Performance models are a core component of PMS. These models are also used to calibrate facility design procedures. The main objective of this project was to develop Empirical-Mechanistic (E-M) performance models using data from Washington State’s PMS databases. Four models were developed from that data: * A model for predicting the initiation of overlay cracking in asphalt concrete (AC) pavements * A model for predicting the progression of roughness for AC pavements * A model for predicting the initiation of cracking in portland cement concrete (PCC) pavements * A model for predicting the progression of roughness for portland cement concrete pavements At the start of the project, models using pavement maintenance data from the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT) and the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) were attempted. The initial reasoning for using PMS data from those states is that they have very measured pavement conditions consistently over a long period of time, and they have topographic and climate regions similar to parts of California. Therefore, Caltrans could use models developed using data from those states to manage a subset of California’s pavement infrastructure until the department develops the database needed to support model development. However, the research team found that the ADOT data were inappropriate for developing the type of performance models needed in this project, so only WSDOT pavement data were used.