Policy Paper 48: Conventional Arms Control in the Middle East: Conceptual Challenges and An Illustrative Framework

Discussion of Middle East arms control has centered on weapons of mass destruction and confidence building measures, ignoring the possibility of a conventional arms control arrangement. Although the potential for such an agreement may be distant, the author argues that the changing environment in the Middle East requires that this issue be given new consideration. The exploration of conventional arms control also may focus Washington’s attention on what such an agreement should include, thus enabling policymakers to avoid wasting time and political capitol when the prospects for such an agreement emerge. The author explores the requirements for such an agreement and outlines them in an illustrative framework. Any arms control package must address five requirements. The first is to maintain the ability of states to defend themselves, either through their own efforts or in combination with others. It must decrease the feasibility of a state taking offensive action, particularly without warning. It must be directed at preventing precipitation of conflict through miscalculation. It must limit the ability of any state to assert regional hegemony. Finally, it should moderate, if not reverse, the quantitative and qualitative dimensions of military arsenals of regional states. Given these guidelines, the author creates an illustrative framework agreement based on four categories. The first is Limitations and Reductions, which specifies the maximum and minimum level of equipment and the rate of arms reduction. The second section, Deployment Limitations, outlines the requirements for the demilitarization of disputed territories of the Golan Heights and the West Bank. The Verification and Monitoring section of the Framework specifies which groups and organizations have the authority to inspect the reduction process and calls for the creation of a Treaty Monitoring Center to oversee it. Finally, the Associated Measures outlines the transparency requirements of each party’s military.