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Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

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  • Hsiang, Solomon M
  • Burke, Marshall
  • Miguel, Edward

Abstract

A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the 60 most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a striking convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for each one standard deviation (1σ) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2σ to 4σ by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsiang, Solomon M & Burke, Marshall & Miguel, Edward, 2013. "Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt28c3c631, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt28c3c631
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hsiang, Solomon M & Burke, Marshall & Miguel, Edward, 2014. "Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: reply to Buhaug et al," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0d58853b, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Wei Wan & Jue Wang, 2024. "The Impact of Weather on Economic Growth: County-Level Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-21, November.
    3. My Nguyen, 2024. "Temperature and intimate partner violence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 71(2), pages 197-218, May.
    4. Li, Haoyang & Chen, Yifeng & Ma, Mingming, 2024. "Temperature and life satisfaction: Evidence from Chinese older adults," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 225(C).
    5. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Eberhardt, Markus, 2024. "Climate change and economic prosperity: Evidence from a flexible damage function," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    6. Friederike Mengel & Elke Weidenholzer, 2023. "Preferences for redistribution," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(5), pages 1660-1677, December.
    7. Rubio-Ramos, Melissa & Isendahl, Christian & Olsson, Ola, 2024. "The Political Economy of Bread and Circuses: Weather Shocks and Classic Maya Monument Construction," Working Papers in Economics 850, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    8. Dardati, Evangelina & Laurent, Thibault & Margaretic, Paula & Thomas-Agnan, Christine, 2024. "Climate, Conflict and International Migration," TSE Working Papers 24-1575, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    9. Zhao, Wanli & Zhai, Xiangyang & Ji, Qiang & Liu, Zhenhua, 2024. "Measuring crisis from climate risk spillovers in European electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Melissa Rubio-Ramos & Christian Isendahl & Ola Olsson, 2024. "The Political Economy of Bread and Circuses: Weather Shocks and Classic Maya Monument Construction," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 342, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    11. Melissa Rubio-Ramos & Christian Isendahl & Ola Olsson, 2024. "The Political Economy of Bread and Circuses: Weather Shocks and Classic Maya Monument Construction," CESifo Working Paper Series 11439, CESifo.
    12. Baysan, Ceren & Burke, Marshall & González, Felipe & Hsiang, Solomon & Miguel, Edward, 2019. "Non-economic factors in violence: Evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 434-452.
    13. Raphael Calel & David A. Stainforth, 2025. "Little floods everywhere: what will climate change mean for you?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(1), pages 1-9, January.
    14. Pushkar Maitra & Anirudh Tagat, 2024. "Labor supply responses to rainfall shocks," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 851-887, August.
    15. Soumaïla Gansonré, 2024. "Rainfall variability and welfare of agricultural households: Evidence from rural Niger," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(4), pages 572-587, July.
    16. Marcantonio, Richard, 2024. "Environmental violence and enterprise: The outsized role of business for environmental peacebuilding," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 67(6), pages 685-698.
    17. Wolfgang Stojetz & Piero Ronzani & Tilman Brück & Jeanne Pinay & Marco d'Errico, 2024. "Shocking social safety: Evidence from violence and drought in North-east Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 420, Households in Conflict Network.
    18. Burke, Marshall & Hsiang, Solomon M & Miguel, Edward, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3g72r0zv, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    19. Moustafa Feriga & Mancy Lozano Gracia & Pieter Serneels, 2024. "The impact of climate change on work lessons for developing countries," CSAE Working Paper Series 2024-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    20. Aguilar-Gomez, Sandra & Cárdenas, Juan Camilo & Galindo, Camila & Rodríguez-Arenas, Jorge & Vlasak-González, Daniela, 2024. "Gender Gaps in Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Related to Environmental Degradation in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 21267, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    21. Roeckert, Julian & Krähnert, Kati & Hoffmann, Roman, 2024. "Extreme weather events and violence against children," Ruhr Economic Papers 1094, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    22. Hajdu, Tamás, 2024. "Temperature exposure and sleep duration: Evidence from time use surveys," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    23. Guimbeau, Amanda & Ji, Xinde James & Menon, Nidhiya, 2024. "Climate Shocks, Intimate Partner Violence, and the Protective Role of Climate-Resilience Projects," IZA Discussion Papers 17529, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    24. Li, Chenxi & Xia, Xinyue & Lin, Yixun & Wen, Hanlin, 2024. "Polluted cognition: The effect of air pollution on online purchasing behavior," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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