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Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict

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  • Hsiang, Solomon M
  • Burke, Marshall
  • Miguel, Edward

Abstract

A rapidly growing body of research examines whether human conflict can be affected by climatic changes. Drawing from archaeology, criminology, economics, geography, history, political science, and psychology, we assemble and analyze the 60 most rigorous quantitative studies and document, for the first time, a striking convergence of results. We find strong causal evidence linking climatic events to human conflict across a range of spatial and temporal scales and across all major regions of the world. The magnitude of climate's influence is substantial: for each one standard deviation (1σ) change in climate toward warmer temperatures or more extreme rainfall, median estimates indicate that the frequency of interpersonal violence rises 4% and the frequency of intergroup conflict rises 14%. Because locations throughout the inhabited world are expected to warm 2σ to 4σ by 2050, amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical impact of anthropogenic climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsiang, Solomon M & Burke, Marshall & Miguel, Edward, 2013. "Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt28c3c631, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt28c3c631
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hsiang, Solomon M & Burke, Marshall & Miguel, Edward, 2014. "Reconciling climate-conflict meta-analyses: reply to Buhaug et al," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0d58853b, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Eberhardt, Markus, 2024. "Climate change and economic prosperity: Evidence from a flexible damage function," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    3. Dardati, Evangelina & Laurent, Thibault & Margaretic, Paula & Thomas-Agnan, Christine, 2024. "Climate, Conflict and International Migration," TSE Working Papers 24-1575, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    4. Baysan, Ceren & Burke, Marshall & González, Felipe & Hsiang, Solomon & Miguel, Edward, 2019. "Non-economic factors in violence: Evidence from organized crime, suicides and climate in Mexico," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 434-452.
    5. Soumaïla Gansonré, 2024. "Rainfall variability and welfare of agricultural households: Evidence from rural Niger," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(4), pages 572-587, July.
    6. Burke, Marshall & Hsiang, Solomon M & Miguel, Edward, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3g72r0zv, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    7. Roeckert, Julian & Krähnert, Kati & Hoffmann, Roman, 2024. "Extreme weather events and violence against children," Ruhr Economic Papers 1094, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    8. Li, Chenxi & Xia, Xinyue & Lin, Yixun & Wen, Hanlin, 2024. "Polluted cognition: The effect of air pollution on online purchasing behavior," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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