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Hubris, Learning, and M&A Decisions

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  • Aktas, Nihat
  • de Bodt, Eric
  • Roll, Richard

Abstract

Are CEOs unable to learn? This surprising question deserves to be raised in the light of the declining pattern of cumulative abnormal returns observed in M&A programs. This paper shows that this pattern is the expected ex post empirical evidence for rational risk averse CEOs. Our theoretical argument is that from deal to deal, rational CEOs become more aggressive in the bidding process. They concede increasing fractions of expected synergies to the target shareholders in order to win the bidding game. For CEOs infected by hubris, the learning process should allow them to progressively correct over-optimism and overconfidence, if they survive.

Suggested Citation

  • Aktas, Nihat & de Bodt, Eric & Roll, Richard, 2005. "Hubris, Learning, and M&A Decisions," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7j94111c, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt7j94111c
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    Cited by:

    1. Jie Michael Guo & Qian He & Jiayuan Xin & Jia Liu, 2020. "Managerial overconfidence and M%A performance: evidence from China," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 11(3), pages 342-360.
    2. Matthew T. Billett & Yiming Qian, 2008. "Are Overconfident CEOs Born or Made? Evidence of Self-Attribution Bias from Frequent Acquirers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1037-1051, June.
    3. Lin, Bing-Xuan & Michayluk, David & Oppenheimer, Henry R. & Reid, Sean F., 2008. "Hubris amongst Japanese bidders," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1-2), pages 121-159, January.
    4. Hatoum, Khalil, 2021. "“Theoretical Model on CEO Overconfidence Impact on Corporate Investments”," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 545-552.

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