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Climate Policy When the Distant Future Matters: Catastrophic Events with Hyperbolic Discounting

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  • Karp, Larry
  • Tsur, Yacov

Abstract

Low probability catastrophic climate change can have a significant influence on policy under hyperbolic discounting. We compare the set of Markov Perfect Equilibria (MPE) to the optimal policy under time-consistent commitment. For some initial levels of risk there are multiple MPE; these may involve either excessive or insufficient stabilization effort. These results imply that even if the free-rider problem amongst contemporaneous decision-makers were solved, there may remain a coordination problem amongst successive generations of decision-makers. A numerical example shows that under plausible conditions society should respond vigorously to the threat of climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Karp, Larry & Tsur, Yacov, 2007. "Climate Policy When the Distant Future Matters: Catastrophic Events with Hyperbolic Discounting," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt99n7v1bp, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt99n7v1bp
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    Cited by:

    1. Karp, Larry & Tsur, Yacov, 2007. "Discounting and Climate Change Policy," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt5sm6j36x, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    2. Karp, Larry & Tsur, Yacov, 2007. "Discounting and Climate Change Policy," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt5sm6j36x, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.

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