La baisse des prix des produits agricoles : quelles conséquences pour les pays africains ? - Cas du cacao en Côte d’Ivoire et du Riz en Guinée Conakry -

1. International primary commodity prices show high fluctuations around a general long term declining trend. Since the 60’s, two different periods have been noted : world prices remained steady till 1980 and then dropped dramatically from the middle of the 80’s on. On the whole, the decrease in real terms is important from 1960 to 2000 : around 50% for cocoa and rice. The incidence of such a decrease on commodity dependent developing countries is crucial : either for export, like cocoa in Côte d’Ivoire or for import, like rice in Guinea Conakry. 2. Although the world price of cocoa has known a sharp decline in the last 40 years, the price of chocolate has never stopped increasing in the same period, so that cocoa price which represented 20% of the total value of a French chocolate bar in 1960, represents only 5% of this chocolate bar today. This price differential is partly responsible for the deterioration of the exchange terms in Côte d’Ivoire as its cocoa is almost totally exported (local use is quite limited). Several solutions can be proposed to cope with this price differential : Increase farming productivity Study the opportunity for international rules of competition Improve cocoa bean valorisation (bio market, origin certification, fair trade) Invest in cocoa processing in Côte d’Ivoire Develop a local consumer market A pragmatic analysis of these different solutions shows that improvements can be made but on the whole they will never compensate the consequences of the fall in cocoa price. The problem then is not simply the improvement of the production chain profitability, but rather how to find a way to establish durable development in a country like Côte d’Ivoire, which still today depends on cocoa for 36% of its GDP. 3. The rice production chain in Guinea Conakry is somewhat different. An international price fall in rice could be considered propitious as Guinea Conakry imports rice for rural and urban consumption. However, because this decrease was not steady in the course of time (rather successive hard falls, such as those of 1985 and 1998, the latest ones) it badly disturbed the local rice production chain. Thus the 1998 fall considerably limited the impact of the Guinean policy promoting local rice production that was launched at the beginning of the 90’s in view of reaching food self sufficiency in 2005. Few tools are available to protect local production chains, such as tariff or exchange rate policies. These have limited impact, leaving the local government powerless in face of important price falls, especially since the importers lobby has a strong ability to infringe rules. But beyond these current difficulties, we need to find out whether Guinean rice production systems (which give a good quality steamed rice appreciated by local populations) can compete with the highly productive Asiatic rice. What is really at stake is the crucial quest for food self-sufficiency in Guinea. 4. Thus both chains, cocoa in Côte d’Ivoire and rice in Guinea Conakry, give us different views of a same question : over and above the negative impact of commodity prices decrease on local chains, the development opportunities of these countries, widely depending on basic commodities, are compromised. Different political options are available for local governments, such as chain management improvement, production diversification or regional integration. But these solutions may have little impact if they are not backed up by international organizations, either existing (World Bank, UNCTAD, ILO) or to be created (World Environment Organization). These organizations should be endowed with specific financial tools (public aid for development, international taxation...) in order to compensate the low potential of these countries by specific and targeted long term aid programs (training, transports, rural infrastructures...). Such programs should take into account all aspects of development : not only commercial but also legal, social and cultural.