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On Primary Commodity Prices: The Impact of Macroeconomic/ Monetary shocks

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  • Ping HUA

    (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique(CNRS))

Abstract

The hypothesis of a long-run quantifiable relationship between non-oil primary commodity prices and macroeconomic/monetary variables -focusing industrial production and effective exchange rate of US dollar- is tested by co-integration technique using quarterly data for 1970q2-1993q3. This confirmed equilibrium adjustment explains the origine of the observed coincidence of commodity price variations with the fluctuations of macroeconomic/monetary variables. An error correction specification, including interest rate, is therefore applied to estimate the observed disequilibrium prices of commodities in the context of steady state solutions. This instantaneous adjustment explains why commodity prices havec fluctuated more strongly over the last two decades than before.

Suggested Citation

  • Ping HUA, 1997. "On Primary Commodity Prices: The Impact of Macroeconomic/ Monetary shocks," Working Papers 199729, CERDI.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdi:wpaper:49
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    Cited by:

    1. Feng Lu & Yuanfang Li, 2009. "China’s Factor in Recent Global Commodity Price and Shipping Freight Volatilities," Trade Working Papers 22889, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

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