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The Glacier Grinds Closer: How Demographics Will Change Canada’s Fiscal Landscape

Author

Listed:
  • William B.P. Robson

    (C.D. Howe Institute)

Abstract

The impacts of demographic change on Canada's fiscal landscape will be profound, and as we enter the second decade of the 21st century, they are no longer far away. If current patterns of spending in age-sensitive public programs - healthcare, education, elderly and children's benefits - persist as the population evolves, Canadians will divert more of their incomes from other public and private purposes to fund them. Discounted over 50 years, that increase amounts to an implicit liability of $2.8 trillion for governments, with essentially all the burden falling on the provinces and territories rather than on Ottawa.

Suggested Citation

  • William B.P. Robson, 2010. "The Glacier Grinds Closer: How Demographics Will Change Canada’s Fiscal Landscape," e-briefs 106, C.D. Howe Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdh:ebrief:106
    as

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    File URL: https://www.cdhowe.org/public-policy-research/glacier-grinds-closer-how-demographics-will-change-canadas-fiscal-landscape
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. William B.P. Robson, 2009. "Boomer Bulge: Dealing with the Stress of Demographic Change on Government Budgets in Canada," e-briefs 71, C.D. Howe Institute.
    2. William B.P. Robson, 2007. "Time and Money: The Challenge of Demographic Change and Government Finances in Canada," C.D. Howe Institute Backgrounder, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 109, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre Siklos & Andrew Spence, 2010. "Faceoff: Should the Bank of Canada Release its Projections of the Interest Rate Path? – The Cases For and Against," C.D. Howe Institute Backgrounder, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 134, October.
    2. William Robson & Colin Busby & Aaron Jacobs, 2014. "Healthcare and an Aging Population: Managing Slow-Growing Revenues and Rising Health Spending in British Columbia," e-briefs 195, C.D. Howe Institute.
    3. Ake Blomqvist & Colin Busby, 2012. "Long-Term Care for the Elderly: Challenges and Policy Options," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 367, November.
    4. Angelo Melino, 2011. "Moving Monetary Policy Forward: Why Small Steps - and a Lower Inflation Target - Make Sense for the Bank of Canada," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 319, January.
    5. Don Drummond & Evan Capeluck & Matthew Calver, 2015. "The Key Challenge for Canadian Public Policy: Generating Inclusive and Sustainable Economic Growth," CSLS Research Reports 2015-11, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    6. Kevin D. Moore & William Robson & Alexandre Laurin, 2010. "Canada’s Looming Retirement Challenge: Will Future Retirees Be Able to Maintain Their Living Standards upon Retirement?," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 317, December.
    7. Colin Busby, 2011. "The Fragile Fiscal Pulse of Canada's Industrial Heartland: Ontario 2011 Budget," e-briefs 113, C.D. Howe Institute.
    8. Finn Poschmann, 2011. "What Governments Should Do in Mortgage Markets," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 318, January.
    9. David C. Allan & Philippe Bergevin, 2010. "The Canadian ABS Market: Where Do We Go From Here?," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 315, November.
    10. David Longworth, 2010. "Warding Off Financial Market Failure: How to Avoid Squeezed Margins and Bad Haircuts," C.D. Howe Institute Backgrounder, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 135, December.
    11. William Robson & Colin Busby & Aaron Jacobs, 2014. "Managing Healthcare for an Aging Population: Ontario’s Troubling Collision Course," e-briefs 192, C.D. Howe Institute.
    12. Pierre Fortin, 2011. "Staying the Course: Quebec's Fiscal Balance Challenge," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 325, March.
    13. Philippe Bergevin & David Laidler, 2010. "Putting Money Back into Monetary Policy: A Monetary Anchor for Price and Financial Stability," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 312, October.
    14. Christopher Ragan, 2011. "Precision Targeting: The Economics – and Politics – of Improving Canada’s Inflation-Targeting Framework," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 321, February.
    15. James P. Bruce, 2011. "Protecting Groundwater: The Invisible and Vital Resource," C.D. Howe Institute Backgrounder, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 136, February.
    16. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2010. "Energy Prices and Alberta Government Revenue Volatility," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 313, November.
    17. Alexandre Laurin & William B.P. Robson, 2011. "A Faster Track to Fiscal Balance: The 2011 Shadow Budget," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 320, February.
    18. Andrew Green & Michael Trebilcock, 2010. "The Eco-Fee Imbroglio: Lessons from Ontario’s Troubled Experiment in Charging for Waste Management," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 316, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; Canada; demographics; government programs; health; education; seniors; families;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

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