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Exchange Rate Risk and Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity

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Abstract

Firstly, we show that domestic prices of net importer countries incorporate a risk premium, driven by higher moments of future nominal exchange rate returns and secondly, using US dollar exchange rates against three currencies of major net exporting countries to the US such as Canada, Japan and the European Union, we find that the skewness of the future nominal exchange rate is the major and statistically robust moment-based factor of the deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP). Our estimates further suggest that only low and moderate exchange rate risks induce risk premia that drive deviations from PPP.

Suggested Citation

  • Arghyrou, Michael G & Lu, Wenna & Pourpourides, Panayiotis M., 2020. "Exchange Rate Risk and Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2020/5, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2020/5
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    Keywords

    Purchasing Power Parity; risk-aversion; exchange rate; downside risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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