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Did China’s Pilot Emissions Trading Scheme Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from a Meta-Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Yanxia Yu
  • Chenfei Qu
  • Tom Coupé

    (University of Canterbury)

  • Mathilda Featherston-Lardeux
  • Andreas Loeschel
  • Arne R. Weiss
  • Da Zhang

Abstract

How effective are Emission Trading Schemes (ETS) in reducing carbon emissions? This paper addresses this question using a meta-analysis of 80 primary studies and 732 effect size estimates assessing the impact of China’s pilot ETS, introduced in seven provinces and cities in 2011. Our findings suggest that China’s pilot ETS led to small to medium-sized reductions in CO2 emissions, with estimated reductions ranging from 5.5% to 16.6% compared to a no-ETS counterfactual. Meta-regression and Bayesian Model Averaging analyses further show that the estimated impacts of the ETS vary with the empirical methods employed and the control variables used. The range of estimates we obtain from synthesizing the literature provides policy-makers with an evidence-based expectation of the potential scale of emissions reductions in the initial phase of developing an ETS.

Suggested Citation

  • Yanxia Yu & Chenfei Qu & Tom Coupé & Mathilda Featherston-Lardeux & Andreas Loeschel & Arne R. Weiss & Da Zhang, 2025. "Did China’s Pilot Emissions Trading Scheme Reduce CO2 Emissions? Evidence from a Meta-Analysis," Working Papers in Economics 25/04, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbt:econwp:25/04
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    File URL: https://repec.canterbury.ac.nz/cbt/econwp/2504.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Meta-analysis; Emission trading scheme;

    JEL classification:

    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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