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The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2024

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  • Congressional Budget Office

Abstract

In its updated May 2023 baseline projections, which include the estimated budgetary effects of subsequent legislation, CBO underestimated revenues for fiscal year 2024 by 1 percent and outlays by 6 percent. The agency’s projection of the federal budget deficit for 2024 was less than the actual amount by 1.1 percent of GDP. CBO also compared its most recent budget projections for 2024, published this past June, with actual outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Congressional Budget Office, 2025. "The Accuracy of CBO’s Budget Projections for Fiscal Year 2024," Reports 60885, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:report:60885
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/60885-budget-accuracy.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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