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The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for Fiscal Policy

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  • Congressional Budget Office

Abstract

In CBO’s most recent extended baseline projections, federal debt held by the public rises from an amount equal to 78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 to 118 percent of GDP in 2038. This report expands on those projections by showing how the federal budget and the nation’s economy would evolve under three alternative scenarios. In those scenarios, laws would be changed to continue certain policies now in place, leading to even higher debt.

Suggested Citation

  • Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "The Long-Term Budget Outlook Under Alternative Scenarios for Fiscal Policy," Reports 54325, Congressional Budget Office.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbo:report:54325
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    File URL: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2018-08/54325-LTBO_AFS.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Fotiou, Alexandra & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2020. "The fiscal state-dependent effects of capital income tax cuts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    2. Michael J. Chow & William C. Dunkelberg, 2019. "Deregulation, tax policy, and certainty: foundations of the U.S. recovery," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 211-225, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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