IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbi/wpaper/4-rt-96.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator

Author

Listed:
  • Quinn, Terry

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

  • Mawdsley, Andrew

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

Abstract

This paper presents the results of research into the construction of a composite leading indicator of the Irish rate of inflation, as measured by the annual percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It follows the work of Fagan and Fell (1994) who applied the business cycle leading indicator methodology, initially established by Mitchell and Burns (1938,1946), to construct a composite leading indicator of the Irish business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Quinn, Terry & Mawdsley, Andrew, 1996. "Forecasting Irish Inflation: A Composite Leading Indicator," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/96, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:4/rt/96
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/research-technical-papers/04rt96---forecasting-irish-inflation-a-composite-leading-indicator-(mawdsley-and-quinn).pdf?sfvrsn=4
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Artis, M J, et al, 1995. "Predicting Turning Points in the UK Inflation Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(432), pages 1145-1164, September.
    2. Roger Perman, 1991. "Cointegration: An Introduction to the Literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 18(3), pages 3-30, September.
    3. Smith, R Todd, 1992. "The Cyclical Behavior of Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(4), pages 413-430, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zivile Zekaite & Gabe de Bondt & Elke Hahn, 2017. "Alice: A New Inflation Monitoring Tool," EcoMod2017 10414, EcoMod.
    2. Khatun, Fahmida & Ahamad, Mazbahul G., 2012. "Investigating the determinants of inflationary trends in Bangladesh: an ARDL bounds F-Test Approach," MPRA Paper 42572, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. B Aytac & S D Wu, 2011. "Modelling high-tech product life cycles with short-term demand information: a case study," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 62(3), pages 425-432, March.
    4. Quinn, Terry & Kenny, Geoff & Meyler, Aidan, 1999. "Inflation Analysis: An Overview," MPRA Paper 11361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Berrin Aytac & S. Wu, 2013. "Characterization of demand for short life-cycle technology products," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 203(1), pages 255-277, March.
    6. de Bondt, Gabe J. & Hahn, Elke & Zekaite, Zivile, 2021. "ALICE: Composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 687-707.
    7. Marco Hoeberichts & Jan Willem van den End, 2024. "Detecting turning points in the inflation cycle," Working Papers 808, DNB.
    8. Kenny, Geoff, 1998. "The Housing Market and the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Ireland," Research Technical Papers 1/RT/98, Central Bank of Ireland.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yong Glasure & Aie-Rie Lee & James Norris, 1999. "Level of economic development and political democracy revisited," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(4), pages 466-477, November.
    2. Baher Ahmed Elgahry, 2020. "Regional and Interregional Business Cycle Comovement in Europe, Asia, and North America," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(4), pages 3088-3103.
    3. Ali F. Darrat & Khaled Elkhal & Sam R. Hakim, 2000. "On the Integration of Emerging Stock Markets in the Middle East," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 119-129, December.
    4. Dauda, Risikat Oladoyin S., 2011. "Effect of Public Educational Spending and Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Schooling Outcomes: Evidence from Nigeria," Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, Universidad ESAN, vol. 16(31), pages 7-21.
    5. Nicholas APERGIS, 1996. "The Cyclical Behavior Of Prices: Evidence From Seven Developing Countries," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 34(2), pages 204-211, June.
    6. Olienyk, John P. & Schwebach, Robert G. & Kenton Zumwalt, J., 1999. "WEBS, SPDRs, and country funds: an analysis of international cointegration," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 9(3-4), pages 217-232, November.
    7. J. M. Binner & R. K. Bissoondeeal & A. W. Mullineux, 2005. "A composite leading indicator of the inflation cycle for the Euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(11), pages 1257-1266.
    8. Pat Wilson & John Okunev & Guy Ta, 1994. "Are Real Estate and Securities Markets Integrated? Some Australian Evidence," Working Paper Series 42, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    9. Alexakis, Christos & Pappas, Vasileios & Tsikouras, Alexandros, 2017. "Hidden cointegration reveals hidden values in Islamic investments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 70-83.
    10. Shiva Makki & Luther Tweeten & Cameron Thraen, 1999. "Investing in Research and Education versus Commodity Programs: Implications for Agricultural Productivity," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 77-94, August.
    11. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Temporal Granger causality and the dynamics examination on the tourism-growth nexus in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 29237, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. David Smant, 1996. "Re-examining the cyclical behaviour of prices and output," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 132(4), pages 651-674, December.
    13. Hugo Oliveros C., 1998. "Modelos De Duración:Una Aplicación En El Caso De La Inflacíón Y La Tasa De Interés," Borradores de Economia 3241, Banco de la Republica.
    14. Joseph Haslag & William Brock, 2014. "On Understanding the Cyclical Behavior of the Price Level and Inflation," Working Papers 1404, Department of Economics, University of Missouri, revised 01 Jul 2014.
    15. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2008. "Money demand function for Southeast Asian countries," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(6), pages 476-496, January.
    16. Eduardo Morales-Ramos, 2002. "Defence R&D expenditure: The crowding-out hypothesis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(5), pages 365-383.
    17. Wai Ching Poon, 2010. "Testing Transmission Mechanisms on Economic Growth in Malaysia," Monash Economics Working Papers 26-10, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    18. Jakob Madsen & Bill Yang, 1998. "Asymmetric price adjustment in a menu-cost model," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 68(3), pages 295-309, October.
    19. Apostolos Serletis & Jinan Liu, 2022. "Inflation and economic activity in advanced and emerging economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4196-4223, October.
    20. Serletis, Apostolos, 1996. "International evidence on the cyclical behavior of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 205-212, May.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:4/rt/96. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fiona Farrelly (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbigvie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.