IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cbi/fsnote/16-fs-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Identifying and assessing systemic risks in Ireland: a review of the Central Bank’s toolkit

Author

Listed:
  • Hallissey, Niamh

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Killeen, Neill

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Wosser, Michael

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

This Note describes the Central Bank of Ireland’s overall approach and toolkit for assessing systemic risks in Ireland. The aim of systemic risk assessments is to identify and measure the potential for negative macro-financial outcomes (“tail risks”) to occur in the future. Evaluating the nature and magnitude of risks facing the financial system in a forward-looking, systematic manner is an important input to the setting of macroprudential policy. There are four main elements to the risk identification and assessment framework including (i) the monitoring of selected indicators, (ii) the development of analytical tools and modelling approaches, (iii) qualitative tools such as the use of surveys and engagement with stakeholders and (iv) targeted deep dives on specific topics to complement regular analysis. The risk assessment draws on these different elements to inform judgements on key risks facing the financial system in Ireland.

Suggested Citation

  • Hallissey, Niamh & Killeen, Neill & Wosser, Michael, 2022. "Identifying and assessing systemic risks in Ireland: a review of the Central Bank’s toolkit," Financial Stability Notes 16/FS/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:fsnote:16/fs/22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/financial-stability-notes/identifying-assessing-systemic-risks-in-ireland-a-review-central-bank-s-toolkit.pdf?sfvrsn=f8049b1d_9
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Covitz & Nellie Liang & Tobias Adrian, 2015. "Financial Stability Monitoring," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 357-395, December.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    3. O'Brien, Martin & Wosser, Michael, 2018. "An Early Warning System for Systemic Banking Crises: A Robust Model Specification," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/18, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Wosser, Michael, 2017. "What Drives Systemic Bank Risk in Europe: the balance sheet effect," Research Technical Papers 08/RT/17, Central Bank of Ireland.
    5. Fiedor, Pawel & Katsoulis, Petros, 2019. "An Lonn Dubh: A Framework for Macroprudential Stress Testing of Investment Funds," Financial Stability Notes 2/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    6. O'Brien, Martin & Staunton, David & Wosser, Michael, 2022. "Recurrent property taxes and house price risks," Economic Letters 4/EL/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    7. Kennedy, Gerard & O'Brien, Eoin & Woods, Maria, 2016. "Assessing the sustainability of Irish residential property prices: 1980Q1-2016Q2," Economic Letters 11/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. Grace, Therese & Hallissey, Niamh & Woods, Maria, 2015. "The Instruments of Macro-Prudential Policy," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 90-105, January.
    9. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    10. Kennedy, Gerard & Killeen, Neill & Skouralis, Alexandros & Velasco, Sofia & Wosser, Michael, 2021. "COVID-19 and the commercial real estate market in Ireland," Financial Stability Notes 4/FS/21, Central Bank of Ireland.
    11. Mr. Nicolas R Blancher & Ms. Srobona Mitra & Mrs. Hanan Morsy & Mr. Akira Otani & Tiago Severo & Ms. Laura Valderrama, 2013. "Systemic Risk Monitoring ("SysMo") Toolkit—A User Guide," IMF Working Papers 2013/168, International Monetary Fund.
    12. O'Brien, Martin & Wosser, Michael, 2021. "Growth at Risk and Financial Stability," Financial Stability Notes 2/FS/21, Central Bank of Ireland.
    13. Fiedor, Pawel & Fragkou, Stamatoula, 2021. "An Lonn Dubh: Disentangling Market Liquidity Risk for Irish Investment Funds," Financial Stability Notes 5/FS/21, Central Bank of Ireland.
    14. Parla, Fabio, 2021. "Financial Market Turbulence and Macro-Financial Developments in Ireland: a Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) Approach," Research Technical Papers 7/RT/21, Central Bank of Ireland.
    15. Daly, Pierce & Moloney, Kitty & Myers, Samantha, 2021. "Property funds and the Irish commercial real estate market," Financial Stability Notes 1/FS/21, Central Bank of Ireland.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Judith Eidenberger & Benjamin Neudorfer & Michael Sigmund & Ingrid Stein, 2013. "Quantifying Financial Stability in Austria, New Tools for Macroprudential Supervision," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 26, pages 62-81.
    2. Tihana Skrinjaric, 2023. "Leading indicators of financial stress in Croatia: a regime switching approach," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(2), pages 205-232.
    3. Nicu Sprincean, 2019. "Early Warning Indicators For Macrofinancial Activity In Romania," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 23, pages 137-162, June.
    4. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    5. Akio Hattori & Kentaro Kikuchi & Fuminori Niwa & Yoshihiko Uchida, 2014. "A Survey of Systemic Risk Measures: Methodology and Application to the Japanese Market," IMES Discussion Paper Series 14-E-03, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    6. Lee, Seung Jung & Posenau, Kelly E. & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2020. "The anatomy of financial vulnerabilities and banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Eidenberger, Judith & Neudorfer, Benjamin & Sigmund, Michael & Stein, Ingrid, 2014. "What predicts financial (in)stability? A Bayesian approach," Discussion Papers 36/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2023. "Credit-to-GDP Gap Estimates in Real Time: A Stable Indicator for Macroprudential Policy Making in Croatia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 582-614, September.
    9. Yao, Fang, 2022. "Estimating the Trend of the House Price to Income Ratio in Ireland," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    10. Tobal, Martin & Menna, Lorenzo, 2020. "Monetary policy and financial stability in emerging market economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    11. Christoph Moser & Axel Dreher, 2010. "Do Markets Care about Central Bank Governor Changes? Evidence from Emerging Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(8), pages 1589-1612, December.
    12. Tölö, Eero, 2019. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2019, Bank of Finland.
    13. Contessi, Silvio & De Pace, Pierangelo & Guidolin, Massimo, 2020. "Mildly explosive dynamics in U.S. fixed income markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 287(2), pages 712-724.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey & Saravelos, George, 2012. "Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008–09 global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 216-231.
    15. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Herman Kamil & Carolina Villegas-Sanchez, 2016. "What Hinders Investment in the Aftermath of Financial Crises: Insolvent Firms or Illiquid Banks?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(4), pages 756-769, October.
    16. Alessandra Canepa & Fawaz Khaled, 2018. "Housing, Housing Finance and Credit Risk," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, May.
    17. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2011. "An Econometric Analysis of Some Models for Constructed Binary Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(1), pages 86-95.
    18. Gimet, Celine, 2007. "Conditions necessary for the sustainability of an emerging area: The importance of banking and financial regional criteria," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 317-335, October.
    19. Wang, Wen-Yao & Hernandez-Verme, Paula, 2009. "Multiple Reserve Requirements, Exchange Rates, Sudden Stops and Equilibrium Dynamics in a Small Open Economy," MPRA Paper 13802, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Evrim Imer-Ertunga, 2011. "Global financing conditions and sovereign debt yields of emerging market countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 207-215.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cbi:fsnote:16/fs/22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Fiona Farrelly (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbigvie.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.