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Population Change and Housing Demand in Ireland

Author

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  • Conefrey, Thomas

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Staunton, David

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

Changes in population and household formation have important implications for the demand for housing, but their precise future paths are uncertain. Using the most up-to-date population projections from the CSO, this Economic Letter estimates scenarios for long-run housing demand in Ireland. We find that – assuming no change in household formation rates (headship) from current levels – an average of around 34,000 new dwellings would be required each year out to 2030 to keep pace with the projected growth in the population. Recent observed levels of residential completions are well below both current and future estimated demand, implying a need for further expansion in the supply of new dwellings.

Suggested Citation

  • Conefrey, Thomas & Staunton, David, 2019. "Population Change and Housing Demand in Ireland," Economic Letters 14/EL/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:ecolet:14/el/19
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    File URL: https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/economic-letters/vol-2019-no-14-population-change-and-housing-demand-in-ireland-(conefrey-and-staunton).pdf?sfvrsn=4
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. McGinnity, Frances & Russell, Helen & Privalko, Ivan & Enright, Shannen & O'Brien, Doireann, 2021. "Monitoring adequate housing in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number BKMNEXT413.
    2. O'Toole, Conor & Slaymaker, Rachel, 2024. "Household size in Ireland: Stylised facts and cross country trends," Quarterly Economic Commentary: Special Articles, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Bergin, Adele & Egan, Paul, 2024. "Population projections, the flow of new households and structural housing demand," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS190.
    4. Egan, Paul & Bergin, Adele, 2023. "The impact of government spending on Ireland’s housing and residential market – Targeted vs economy-wide stimulus," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 552-569.
    5. McQuinn, Kieran & O'Toole, Conor & Hauser, Lea, 2024. "Quarterly Economic Commentary, Summer 2024," Forecasting Report, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number QEC2024SUM, march.
    6. Roantree, Barra & Barrett, Michelle & Redmond, Paul, 2022. "Poverty, income inequality and living standards in Ireland: 2nd annual report," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number JR1.
    7. Murphy, Keire & Stapleton, Amy, 2024. "Access to autonomous housing for beneficiaries of International Protection in Ireland," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS184.
    8. McQuinn, Kieran, 2020. "Property prices and Covid-19 related administrative closures: What are the implications?," Papers WP661, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Bergin, Adele & Garcia-Rodriguez, Abian, 2020. "Regional demographics and structural housing demand at a county Level," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS111.
    10. Roantree, Barra & Doorley, Karina, 2023. "Poverty, income inequality and living standards in Ireland: Third annual report," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number JR4.

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