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Was China¡¯s Inflation in 2004 Led by An Agricultural Price Rise?

Author

Listed:
  • Xian Xin
  • Xiuqing Wang

    (College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University Center for Rural Development Policy,China Agricultural University)

Abstract

The escalation of agricultural prices starting from the end of 2003 raised a growing concern about a new round of inflation in China. This paper assesses the impacts of China¡¯s 2003 agricultural output decline on agricultural prices and inflation with a general equilibrium model calibrated to actual data. The results suggest that China¡¯s 2003 agricultural output decline was not sufficient alone to produce the observed agricultural price increases and inflationary pressure in 2004. This implies there must have been other factors behind the observed escalation of agricultural prices and inflation; a view that is counter to the conventional view that the rise in agricultural prices lead to the 2004 inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Xian Xin & Xiuqing Wang, 2007. "Was China¡¯s Inflation in 2004 Led by An Agricultural Price Rise?," Working Papers 0702, China Agricultural University, College of Economics and Management.
    • Handle: RePEc:cau:wpaper:0702
    as

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    File URL: http://www.cau.edu.cn/cem/news/newsfj/2007E002.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2007
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural price; Inflation; General Equilibrium Model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General

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