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The Systematic Origins of Monetary Policy Shocks

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  • Lukas Hack
  • Klodiana Istrefi
  • Matthias Meier

Abstract

Conventional strategies to identify monetary policy shocks rest on the implicit assumption that systematic monetary policy is constant over time. We formally show that these strategies do not isolate monetary policy shocks in an environment with time-varying systematic monetary policy. Instead, they are contaminated by systematic monetary policy and macroeconomic variables, leading to contamination bias in estimated impulse responses. Empirically, we show that Romer and Romer (2004) monetary policy shocks are indeed predictable by fluctuations in systematic monetary policy. Instead, we propose a new monetary policy shock that is orthogonal to systematic monetary policy. Our shock suggests U.S. monetary policy has shorter lags and stronger effects on inflation and output.

Suggested Citation

  • Lukas Hack & Klodiana Istrefi & Matthias Meier, 2024. "The Systematic Origins of Monetary Policy Shocks," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_557, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_557
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    File URL: https://www.crctr224.de/research/discussion-papers/archive/dp557
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    Keywords

    Systematic monetary policy; monetary policy shocks; identification;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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